The 4 GOP Senate Seats Dems Are Most Likely to Flip With 30 Days to Midterm

With only one month remaining until the November 8 midterm elections, the forthcoming Senate and House races remain contentious.

Even in the context of the last 15 years, when midterm election cycles have been some of the most impactful, the 2022 cycle has long seemed primed to be among the most important in history. The outcomes in numerous states are expected to have significant ramifications for the remainder of President Joe Biden's first term in office and the potential integrity of the 2024 election.

The Senate has, for several months, been tipped in favor of the Democrats, who won a slim majority in 2020. Polling database FiveThirtyEight estimates that the Democratic Party has a two-thirds chance of maintaining control of the Senate. The party might also potentially grow its majority, with at least two important states currently tipped to flip from red to blue, and two others having competitive races.

Pennsylvania

John Fetterman, the current lieutenant governor, is tipped to beat Republican candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz, the popular and controversial daytime TV personality, to win a Senate seat in Pennsylvania. The two candidates are vying for the seat being left by GOP Senator Pat Toomey, who opted not to pursue another term after voting to impeach Donald Trump last year. While the odds have tightened in recent weeks, FiveThirtyEight still gives Fetterman a 6.6 percentage-point lead over Oz.

Fetterman has been noted for his hard-hitting online campaign against Oz, with his team using savvy knowledge of internet culture and memes to attack the GOP candidate. The progressive Democrat has predominantly focused on the fact that Oz resides in New Jersey, as well as his wealth and seeming disconnect with working-class Americans. Oz has in recent weeks managed to land a few hits that have stuck, such as raising concerns about Fetterman's health in the wake of a stroke and his allegedly light schedule as lieutenant governor.

Pennsylvania was among the key swing states that went to Biden in 2020, with the president scoring a slim 50.01 percent win over Trump, who got 48.84 of the vote.

Ohio

Tim Ryan, the U.S. Representative for Ohio's 17th District, currently boasts a slight edge over his GOP opponent J.D. Vance, the Trump-endorsed venture capitalist and author of Hillbilly Elegy. The two candidates are seeking the seat to be vacated by Republican Senator Rob Portman, who is not pursuing another term. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Ryan a razor-thin 1.6 percent lead, putting the race solidly in the realm of a toss-up.

Vance's campaign has been marked by numerous controversial statements, including an unsubstantiated claim that President Biden was flooding Ohio with fentanyl in retribution for the state voting Republican and saying in an interview with Steve Bannon that he did not "really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another."

Ohio tipped to Trump in 2020 by a considerable margin, with the former president besting Biden 53.27 percent to 45.24 percent.

North Carolina

While Democratic candidate Cheri Beasley has a slight polling disadvantage against her opponent, GOP Representative Ted Budd, the margin is a remarkably slim at 0.7 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight, making a Democrat win a solid possibility. Beasley, the former chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, and Budd are seeking the seat being left by Senator Richard Burr, another Republican who voted in favor of Trump's second impeachment following last year's Capitol riot.

North Carolina ultimately went to Trump in 2020, though by a slim margin of 1.34 percent, with the former president receiving 49.93 percent of the vote.

Wisconsin

A similar case can be found in Wisconsin, with incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson boasting a slight lead over Democratic challenger, Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, but by a slim enough margin for the race to be competitive and one of the blue party's best hopes for flipping a Senate seat. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Johnson a 1.9 percent lead over Barnes, with its most recently collected poll having the two candidates in a dead heat.

A noted swing state, Wisconsin tipped for Biden in 2020, with the Democrat scoring less than a 1 percent lead over Trump. The thin margin made the state one of Trump's major targets in his election conspiracy campaign following his loss, with Johnson being accused by the January 6 House select committee of being involved in a plot to send a fake slate of electors to Washington.

Newsweek reached out to Democratic Party offices in the above-mentioned states for comment.