Aaron Rodgers' Return Could Be Irrelevant Due to the Jets' Schedule

For much of the NFL offseason, Aaron Rodgers dominated the headlines. As if his departure from Green Bay wasn't already front-page news, the quarterback landed in New York and joined the Jets. Given the club's top-notch defense, a star signal-caller seemed to be the missing piece of the puzzle.

Then Week 1 arrived and, as we all know, Rodgers went down injured. And, before long, reports started rolling in that he would be done for the season.

Reports of the QB's demise, however, may have been exaggerated. He promised he'd be back and, based on the public glimpses we've received, it certainly seems like that's possible.

Now, we even have a tentative window for his return.

That update, however, doesn't mean everything is sunshine and rainbows for Gang Green. In fact, a look at the schedule dumps some rain on the metaphorical parade.

Rodgers Is Looking at a Mid-December Return

Throughout Rodgers' time on the sidelines, we've received plenty of clues about a potential return. Some, like throwing on the field before a game or walking without crutches, have been obvious. Others, like a watch ad showing some specific numbers, require a bit more of a logical leap.

And while the QB has been teasing the timeline of his return, we now have something more concrete.

According to NBC's Melissa Stark, Rodgers is aiming to return to the field in mid-December. That would, in theory, allow him to take part in the Jets' final few regular-season games before pushing into the postseason.

After New York's Sunday Night Football loss, though, head coach Robert Saleh didn't have much to say about a potential return.

"I don't know," Saleh said, according to the New York Post. "If the doctors clear him, we'll clear him."

Newsweek has reached out to the Jets for comment about Rodgers' potential timeline for return.

The Jets' Schedule Looms Large

On paper, getting Rodgers back in the saddle would be a major victory for the Jets. The club has hung tough despite a season-altering setback; his return could be just the boost required to secure a wild-card berth and, once in the postseason, anything can happen.

There is a problem, though: the upcoming schedule.

After losing to the Raiders, the Jets sit at 4-5. That's not terribly adrift—the Texans currently occupy the final AFC playoff spot at 5-4—there are some tough games lurking around the corner.

For starters, Gang Green's next two games come against the Bills and the Dolphins. Even though Buffalo hasn't looked like a world-beater this season, securing a win in Orchard Park is a tall task for anyone. And Miami, despite a slow day against Kansas City before their bye week, has the offensive firepower to win any game.

New York then has a winnable game against the Falcons before facing the surprising Houston Texans. Then there's another date with Miami again on December 17.

While anything can happen between the white lines, it wouldn't be unforeseeable for the Jets to go 1-4 during that stretch. That would mean Rodgers would be rejoining a 5-9 team in December. And, at that point, there's no reason to risk rushing him back.

Even if you want to be a bit more literal about "mid-December" and put Rodgers as fit for December 17th's date with the Dolphins, the window could still be closed.

The New York Times' Upshot isn't a perfect tool—the NFL playoff picture is a complex web, and the model makes assumptions about the other results—but we can use it to gauge the Jets' situation. Losing to the Bills and Dolphins then beating the Falcons and Texans would only give Gang Green a 4 percent chance of making the postseason. Even beating Buffalo would only raise the odds to 20 percent.

Could the Jets run the table from there on, beating the Commanders, Browns and Patriots? Yes, but the hole might be too deep at that point. Remember, that 20 percent chance of postseason football requires a Week 11 upset to even get off the ground. And, to make things even trickier, an extra loss along the way would undo that work.

And while an old Jets coach famously said that "You play to win the game," sometimes discretion is the better part of valor. Would making the postseason be great? Sure, but this season showed what happens when Zach Wilson starts ahead of Rodgers. Is it worth rushing back and risking a potential problem for a marginal chance of playoff football? Even if you want to argue that the quarterback changes everything, it seems like a tall ask for Rodgers to parachute into the situation and play rust-free football, let alone produce a long enough winning streak to lift the Lombardi Trophy.

Sports, at their best, produce some incredible drama. And Aaron Rodgers returning ahead of schedule to lead his Jets on a playoff push certainly seems like something out of a Hollywood script.

But will reality get in the way of a good story?