Abortion is Not a Top Issue For Voters. Democrats Should Still Focus On It

With Democrats' majorities in Congress at risk in November, President Joe Biden promised this month that the first bill he sends to Capitol Hill next year would be one that codifies Roe v. Wade.

Seeking to energize his party's voters, Biden on October 18 urged people to remember how they felt in late June when the Supreme Court overturned the 1973 decision that had legalized abortion nationwide. "If you care about the right to choose, then you gotta vote," he said.

But while the fall of Roe gave Democrats a boost over the summer, polls in recent days show the economy is the top issue for more voters, giving Republicans an edge.

A number of recent polls have found more voters are basing their vote in the midterms on economic concerns, while one survey found more Americans trust Republicans to do a better job on tackling inflation and tamping down gas prices than Democrats.

Meanwhile, abortion is not the top election issue on voters' minds in any U.S. state, according to a recent Newsweek analysis of Google Trends.

With Republicans favored to win the House in the midterms and several tight Senate races in key battleground states, some have warned of the danger of Democrats making the midterms a referendum on abortion and urged better messaging on the economy.

"In my view, while the abortion issue must remain on the front burner, it would be political malpractice for Democrats to ignore the state of the economy and allow Republican lies and distortions to go unanswered," Sen. Bernie Sanders warned in a recent op-ed in The Guardian newspaper.

However, several experts told Newsweek that focusing on abortion could nonetheless prove to be a viable strategy for Democrats because, in the opinion of one, "it's the only card" they have "to play as a trump card."

'No Danger' in Abortion Focus

"There's absolutely no danger in focusing on abortion," Democratic strategist Christy Setzer told Newsweek. "It's an issue on which Republicans in Congress hold an extremist view that can serve as an entry-point to talking about their extremism on other issues. I'm not sure there's even a danger in talking exclusively about abortion, so long as it's presented as, among other things, an economic issue that impacts all women."

Kim Nalder, a professor of political science at Sacramento State University, said that "there are few truly persuadable voters" in such a polarized time, "so a lot of strategy comes down to motivating reluctant or first-time voters to get to the polls."

According to a recent survey from the Kaiser Family Foundation, half of respondents said the overturning of Roe had made them more motivated to vote in November.

The Supreme Court's overturning of Roe "may well activate some previously inattentive voters, or those who may have otherwise chosen to sit out a midterm election," Nalder said. "In that sense, it's probably a smart strategy for the Democrats."

By focusing on an issue that is likely to motivate Democratic voters, Democrats are "hoping for heightened turnout which should benefit their party in all elections," Joanne Green, a political science professor at Texas Christian University, told Newsweek.

"State elections are also important in this cycle. Hence, despite the negative economic winds, voter enthusiasm is especially important for Democrats if they have any hopes of going against historical—and economic—trends which predict this to be a good year for Republican candidates."

Charles Bullock, a political science professor at the University of Georgia, agreed. He said that in battleground states, such as Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, concern about access to abortion could shift some voters who may otherwise have voted Republican.

"The concern about access to abortion is an element that may be able to mobilize some share of the electorate particularly, say white college-educated voters," he told Newsweek.

"While the economy and inflation are the concerns most widely voiced by voters in a narrowly divided state, if Democrats could capitalize on pushback against the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision and if it were to move just a few percentage points of the electorate, then that might then prove decisive in a state in which the Democrats and Republicans are evenly divided."

'We Don't Live Single-Issue Lives'

Kelley Robinson, the executive director of Planned Parenthood Action Fund, said that asking people to "choose" between the economy and abortion "is a false choice."

"We are centering the issues that matter to people—and that includes protecting access to abortion," Robinson said in a statement to Newsweek.

"When people are denied the freedom to access abortion or birth control, they are denied the freedom to decide their own futures. And stripping people of this freedom has significant economic implications. We don't live single-issue lives. Our reproductive freedom is connected to our economic freedom, and no one should be forced to choose between the two."

Democratic strategist Mike Lux dismissed concerns that Biden and Democrats have focused too much on the abortion issue.

"Joe Biden's been talking a lot about the economy," he told Newsweek. "He's been going going to a lot of different states doing doing events that are that are economically focused. He's talked a lot about Inflation Reduction Act, he's talked a lot about the CHIPS Act, gone to factory openings in Ohio and New York and Pennsylvania and other places."

Biden is continuing to talk about abortion because "it's an important issue, policy-wise, and it's an important issue in turning out the Democratic vote, but it's far from a referendum," Lux said. "Certainly, Biden is not making this a referendum on the abortion issue."

Biden pledging to codify Roe is "a great thing to say," he said, "but it certainly doesn't mean it's the only thing we'll do. It would be a very clear, important win for the American people to codify Roe."

But Setzer and Lux agreed that Democrats need to be talking more about the economy and their plan to curb prices as Election Day nears. "That should be fundamental to every Democrat's message going into this final couple of weeks," Lux said.

Metzer said: "Do Democrats need a solid response on inflation and gas prices? Of course—let's definitely talk about corporate profits. But let's make sure we're having the conversation on our terms, not just responding to GOP scare tactics."

But Bullock noted that Democrats don't "have a very good hand to play" when it comes to talking about the economy and inflation.

"Whether they are or are not responsible for it, it's happening on the watch of a Democratic president and a Congress at least marginally controlled by Democrats," he said. "Most voters are gonna simply look at it and say, 'well, I don't understand how this came about but Democrats were in charge.' So let's fire the coach."

He added: "What it really boils down to is the abortion card may not be the best card to play, but it's the only card, really, the Democrats do have that they can try to play as a trump card."