After Weeks of Increases, Gas Price Hikes May Soon Begin to Slow: Experts

Gas prices are expected to continue increasing as Russia's war with Ukraine proceeds, but experts at GasBuddy say the pace of those increases may soon begin tapering off.

On Tuesday, President Joe Biden announced the U.S. will now ban all imported Russian oil, gas and energy, a decision that follows earlier economic sanctions that avoided specifically targeting Russia's energy sector. Russia is one of the world's top oil producers, and its war with Ukraine has raised concerns among industry experts about the war's potential impacts on oil production and distribution.

Gas prices have risen sharply since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, leading the U.S. this week to break the national record set nearly 14 years ago for the average cost of a gallon of regular unleaded gas. The national average gas price on Tuesday was nearly 72 cents above the average price recorded in early February and about 55 cents above the average price recorded one week ago, according to American Automobile Association (AAA) data.

While announcing the Russian oil ban on Tuesday, Biden said the war "is already hurting American families at the gas pump" and said gas prices are "going to go up further" in response to the new ban.

But Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said during a GasBuddy Facebook Live event on Tuesday that the pace of gas price increases may soon begin to slow.

"This isn't necessarily a surprise to the market," De Haan said of Biden's announcement. "It is not going to necessarily have a shockwave."

The U.S. ban was "largely expected and basically already factored in," he added.

De Haan noted the price hikes reported across the U.S. over the last week and the 10-cent national average gas price increase that occurred between Monday and Tuesday of this week.

"But the good news is, that pace of increase will now slow down," he said. "You shouldn't have to worry about going outside and seeing prices up 40 cents a gallon."

Gas price increases "will continue," he said, "but the pace of increases will likely slow down." In the coming weeks, De Haan said it was "likely" the national average cost of gas will "continue inching higher" toward the $4.50 per gallon mark, while the national average cost for diesel fuel will likely exceed $5 per gallon.

Those expectations could shift if there is a sudden development in the war or if the European Union elects to impose a ban of its own on Russian oil imports. While the U.S. does get some oil products from Russia, De Haan described those amounts as somewhat "insignificant," whereas countries within the E.U. have a greater dependence on Russian oil.

"We receive maybe 7 percent of oil and oil products from Russia. The EU is at about 40 percent," De Haan said. "So if the EU were to cut off Russian energy, that would cause an absolute explosion in the price of oil."