For All the Talk of 'Isolationism,' Vance Beats the Drums of War | Opinion

It took about five minutes for Republican vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance to begin beating the drums of war. In a Monday interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News, Vance declared, "A lot of people recognize that we need to do something with Iran—but not these weak little bombing runs. If you're going to punch the Iranians, you punch them hard."

For all the talk of "isolationism," it appears that Vance is looking for yet another U.S. war in the Middle East. Apparently, 20 years of war in Afghanistan and Iraq weren't enough.

Vance's interview was noteworthy for another reason. He also wrongly attacked President Joe Biden for allegedly not supporting Trump's so-called Abraham Accords. By making this mistake, Vance accidentally revealed just how similar both presidents have been when it comes to U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.

The Abraham Accords are agreements of mutual recognition that the Trump administration brokered between Israel and the U.S.-backed monarchies of Bahrain, the U.A.E., and Morocco. Biden has not only fully embraced Trump's Middle East dealmaking, but actually tried to expand these accords with a dangerous new treaty between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Such a treaty could turn Vance's fantasy—open conflict with Iran—into reality.

Under Biden's proposed U.S.-Saudi treaty, the U.S. would commit to militarily defending the Saudi monarchy, while simultaneously providing Saudi Arabia with more arms and access to nuclear technology. In return, Saudi Arabia would forgo security cooperation with China and eventually come to an agreement on mutual diplomatic recognition with Israel.

A new U.S. defense treaty with Saudi Arabia's monarchy would be a costly disaster both for U.S. interests and for societies across the Middle East. From kidnapping Lebanon's prime minister to bombing Yemen, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman has repeatedly chosen aggression over regional accommodation. An explicit promise of U.S. military protection would enable Saudi Arabia to drag U.S. soldiers into future wars of the Saudi monarchy's creation.

If such a treaty had already been in place during the Trump years, the U.S. would likely have already been dragged into a war with Iran. Indeed, Saudi escalations with Iran during the Trump presidency probably triggered the drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities in 2019. Yemen's Houthis claimed credit for those strikes, but the Trump administration blamed Tehran. J.D. Vance may be daydreaming about U.S. attacks on Iran, but Biden is already pursuing a Trump-inspired policy that could eventually force the U.S. to do exactly that.

New U.S. military support for Saudi Arabia's ruler would also be a major setback for the already tattered cause of human rights in the Middle East. A new U.S.-Saudi treaty would also signal White House comfort with increasing levels of repression inside the monarchy. Under the rule of Mohammed Bin Salman, scores of peaceful, nonviolent advocates for human rights and democracy have already been imprisoned.

One example is retired Saudi teacher Mohammad bin Nasser al-Ghamdi, who was given the death sentence for anonymous tweets criticizing the government. Other members of the al-Ghamdi tribal community have also suffered. Saudi officials went so far as to brutally torture Aida al-Ghamdi and her younger son Adel al-Ghamdi in front of each other. Aida had been detained since March 2018 without formal charges or a fair trial. And there is the case of Manahel al-Otaibi, a 29-year-old Saudi woman sentenced to 11 years in prison for her choice of clothing and for online statements supporting women's rights.

But perhaps the most dangerous aspect of a potential U.S.-Saudi treaty is that it could drive a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. The Biden proposal would provide the Saudi monarchy with the technology necessary to pursue civilian nuclear power. This in turn could enable the monarchy to get its hands on the highly enriched uranium that would make a Saudi nuclear weapons program possible. That would likely drive other governments, including Iran, to accelerate their own nuclear weapons pursuits. And Saudi Arabia's ruler has already said he will pursue nuclear weapons if Iran does.

With the 2024 elections eclipsing everything else, it remains to be seen what the future holds for Biden's treaty negotiations with Saudi Arabia. But as Vance's comments reveal, it may not matter. When it comes to U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, Democrats and Republicans often behave as two slightly different faces of the same single-party state. For all the talk of Vance being an "isolationist," both he and Biden embrace the same Trump policy framework that could drive yet another U.S. war in the Middle East.

Sunjeev Bery is a foreign policy analyst and human rights advocate.

The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.