Beef Prices Are Surging—And Could Be About to Get Even Higher

Experts have warned that mass deportations could severely strain the United States meat industry, leading to a surge in beef prices. The potential removal of thousands of undocumented workers threatens to disrupt supply chains, exacerbate labor shortages, and ultimately drive up meat prices for consumers.

Experts have told Newsweek that President-elect Donald Trump's flagship immigration policy could lead to product shortages, ultimately causing supply and demand dynamics to drive up prices.

Why It Matters

Nearly half of the meat-processing workforce in the United States consists of individuals born outside the country.

Immigrants also play a critical role in caring for and feeding livestock. While a majority of meatpacking workers have legal status, a notable portion does not.

Additionally, many documented immigrants often provide support for close family members who are living in the country without legal authorization.

Trump has vowed to carry out the largest mass deportation operation in American history as he looks to implement an aggressive immigration crackdown.

What To Know

Immigrant labor has been a cornerstone of U.S. meat production, making the industry particularly vulnerable to mass deportation policies.

According to the American Immigration Council, while 17% of US workers across all industries are foreign-born, in the meatpacking industry this figure is considerably higher, at 45.5%.

The mass removal policy could impose a staggering one-time cost of $315 billion on the U.S., according to the American Immigration Council. Deporting 1 million people every year could cost up to $88 billion annually.

This would necessitate a massive expansion of detention and court systems, along with a substantial increase in law enforcement personnel, detention facilities, immigration courtrooms, and flight capacity.

Pew Research estimates that around 11 million undocumented immigrants reside in the United States. Most of these individuals have no criminal history, and their situations vary significantly, from asylum seekers who crossed the border to those who initially entered on a tourist visa and overstayed.

What It Means for Prices

Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals a rise in the price of ground beef. In November 2024, the cost of a pound of 100% ground beef was $5.628, up from $5.588 the previous month and $5.10 a year earlier. A survey from November also revealed that Americans were cutting back on red and processed meat due to rising costs.

Donald Trump's deportation plans could see that cost pushed higher still.

Labor shortages would create supply-chain bottlenecks, reducing the supply of fresh and perishable meat products. Consumers could start seeing price increases within weeks of policy changes, as supply-and-demand dynamics take hold.

What People Are Saying

Karoline Leavitt, Trump-Vance Transition Spokeswoman told Newsweek: "President Trump will enlist every federal power and coordinate with state authorities to institute the largest deportation operation of illegal criminals, drug dealers, and human traffickers in American history while simultaneously lowering costs for families and strengthening our workforce. The American people re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail, like deporting migrant criminals and restoring our economic greatness. He will deliver."

Jada Thompson, PhD, Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness at the University of Arkansas, told Newsweek: "Mass deportations would likely disrupt labor availability, impacting both legal and undocumented foreign-born workers. This could create added scrutiny for legal workers and further exacerbate labor shortages. Since meatpacking is highly labor-intensive, such disruptions would likely result in a slowdown in plant efficiency.

"Employees covering multiple roles would struggle to maintain normal production levels, leading to reduced output. For consumers, this slowdown would manifest as reduced availability of meat products. While the exact extent of these slowdowns is uncertain, any disruption to production and processing systems would likely have a noticeable impact.

"Mass deportation, particularly if H-2A and H-2B visas are revoked or reduced, would severely strain the meatpacking workforce, leading to significant labor shortages and operational challenges.

"If the meatpacking industry is affected by mass deportations, limited or revoked H-2A and B, and job uncertainty, production lines will likely slow down. In the short run, this will likely lead to product shortages, and ultimately supply and demand dynamics will drive up prices. Fresh and perishable meat products, which have short timelines from production to consumption, would likely be affected first. The timing of these price increases would depend on the implementation and enforcement of any policy changes.

Joseba Martinez, Assistant Professor of Economics at London Business School, told Newsweek: "The idea would be that mass deportation reduces the labor supply and increases wages. The increase in wages might be dampened if native-born/documented migrants replace the deported workers.

"Of course, that relies on the idea that there are some available workers out there who are not working at prevailing wages but would be tempted back into the labor force if wages were higher.

"There aren't a lot of prime-age workers available to pull in to replace any deported workers (the undocumented workforce is much younger than the native-born, on average).

Ernesto Castañeda, director at Immigration Lab and the Center for Latin American and Latino Studies, and professor at the College of Arts & Sciences and the School of International Service at American University, previously told Newsweek: "The U.S. economy would receive the largest negative impact if around 4 million undocumented Mexicans plus some of their U.S. citizen family members are deported to Mexico; it would decrease economic output by close to $2 trillion.

What Happens Next

As prices rise, low-income families—who already spend a substantial amount of their income on food—may feel the effects most acutely.