Belarus Opposition Leader Addresses Lukashenko Health Rumors

Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya responded to rumors about President Alexander Lukashenko's health on Monday.

Speculation about Lukashenko, a key ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, began to grow after he left Moscow's Victory Day festivities early last Tuesday.

Lukashenko was photographed at the event with a bandage visible on his right arm. He was the only head of state in attendance who did not join Putin in laying down flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier.

Lukashenko returned early to Belarusian capital Minsk, allegedly due to health reasons, rather than attend a meal with Putin and other leaders. He has not been seen in public since, fueling speculation about his condition.

Tsikhanouskaya, the exiled leader of Belarus' main opposition organization, spoke about these on Monday. "There are many rumors about the dictator Lukashenko's health. For us, it means only one thing: we should be well prepared for every scenario," she tweeted on Monday morning local time.

Tsikhanouskaya called on the international community to be prepared to help Belarus transition to a more democratic political system in the event that Lukashenko was no longer fit to lead the country because of his health issues.

"To turn Belarus on the path to democracy and to prevent Russia from interfering. We need the international community to be proactive and fast," she wrote.

Tsikhanouskaya told Newsweek Lukashenko no longer being able to rule would cause a "very unstable" situation "because a personalized dictatorship is always very tightly connected to the person of the dictator. In his absence, there will be a power struggle. Russia will probably want to promote a protégé of its own."

"I think that this will be a critical moment, when negotiations will have to start. First, because the Belarusian people will not accept the appointees, she said.

She continued: "Secondly, in order to get the country out of the crisis it will be necessary to remove sanctions. And Western countries will not talk to the regime. This is possible only through democratic forces, which have already become a subject. Our task is to preserve our sovereignty and to get negotiations on the transit of power to begin."

She noted the Lukashenko regime may be "working out all sorts of scenarios," including potentially dividing up roles, though the president himself is unlikely to be involved in this as "he is, as he sees it, immortal."

Tsikhanouskaya believes some officials may be ready to cooperate, and that she will be "ready to pick up the phone and talk to everyone who is ready to take responsibility" and will also contact international partners to try to ensure Russia does not interfere with any transfer of power.

The Belarusian government has remained quiet about Lukashenko's health, issuing no formal statements that give any sort of clarity on his condition. However, a Russian official on Monday acknowledged the rumors.

Konstantin Zatulin, a member of Russia's State Duma, told Russian news outlet Podyom that Lukashenko had been ill prior to his appearance at the Victory Day event. He said there is "nothing supernatural" about Lukashenko's condition and added that he does not have COVID-19. Zatulin did not confirm Lukashenko's diagnosis.

"Despite the fact that the man fell ill, he considered it his duty to come to Moscow, and then in the evening of the same day he held events in Minsk," Zatulin said. "He probably needs some rest, that's all."

Lukashenko, 68, has led Belarus since 1994 and has faced international condemnation over aspects of his leadership. He has been criticized for the jailing of political opponents, as well as his support for Putin.

Tsikhanouskaya's husband, Siarhei Tsikhanouski, was arrested in 2020. He was charged with organizing mass arrest and inciting hatred after announcing plans to challenge Lukashenko in that year's election. Tsikhanouskaya ultimately ran in his place, and authorities sentenced Tsikhanouski to 18 years in prison in 2021.

Ukrainian authorities have commented on the speculation about Lukashenko's health. Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine's minister of internal affairs, tweeted: "On 9th May in Moscow Lukashenko looked sick, had a bandaged hand and left for Minsk early. Back in Belarus, he didn't deliver the 9th May speech for the first time ever.

"Lukashenko hasn't appeared in public since then. His absence is the number one topic in Belarus unofficial media," Gerashchenko added. "Today, information appeared that Lukashenko and his entourage have some type of flu. Interesting."

Update 05/15/2023 5:40 p.m. ET: This story was updated with comment from Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.