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Former Vice President Joe Biden extended his lead in crucial battleground states Pennsylvania and Florida, with poll respondents citing President Donald Trump's "bullying" conduct in the first debate last Tuesday.
Biden holds a seven-point lead over Trump among likely Pennsylvania voters, with 49 to 42 percent of support. And he's held on to a five-point lead among likely Florida voters— 47 to 42 percent—according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll released Saturday morning.
Trump's ratings on honesty, trustworthiness, temperament, policies and ability to unify all decreased last Tuesday's debate against Biden in Cleveland. Biden leads among voters 65 and older in both states, continuing one of the largest electoral shifts between parties.
About two-thirds of the 1,416 voters surveyed in both battleground states said they disapprove of Trump's conduct during the debate and about half said they now support the president less.
Only 22 percent of likely voters across both Pennsylvania and Florida said they thought Trump won the debate, but 42 percent said neither candidate could claim victory. Just over one-third over voters polled in both states—36 percent—said Biden won. Preliminary results from a corresponding Times/Siena College survey being conducted in Arizona showed a shift in favor of Biden.
Trump has trailed Biden in Pennsylvania and Florida since the start of campaign polling despite having won both against Hillary Clinton in 2016.
During follow-up interviews conducted as part of the survey, almost every respondent used the word "bully" in reference to Trump's behavior during the debate. About half as many likely voters said they disapproved of Biden's conduct, with 31 percent saying they support the Democratic nominee less after watching the event.
"I think that Donald Trump acted like a big bully on the stage," said Cindy Von Waldner, 63, a lifelong Republican from Titusville, Florida, in a follow-up interview with the Times. She cited Trump's failure to take the coronavirus pandemic seriously enough as the primary reason why she may cast her first-ever Democratic vote for Biden.
The Trump campaign has for months argued that Biden would offer a flustered or confused debate performance, but it is the president who took hits on characteristics ranging from honesty to leadership ability. Negative ratings of Trump's "presidential temperament" doubled between the same poll conducted before and after the debate.
Voter responses to Biden's performance either revealed little or no changes at all before and after the debate. He gained five percentage points in favor of his "temperament" and three points highlighting his ability to "unify America." But few other characteristics were judged differently from two weeks ago.
According to FiveThirtyEight's latest 2020 election forecast, Biden has a 80 percent chance of winning the November 3 election versus the 20 in 100 shot given to Trump. The closest margin the two candidates have ever been was on August 31, when Biden had a 67 percent chance of winning versus 32 percent predicted for Trump.
Newsweek reached out to both the Biden and Trump campaigns for additional remarks Saturday afternoon.
About the writer
Benjamin Fearnow is a reporter based out of Newsweek's New York City offices. He was previously at CBS and Mediaite ... Read more