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Arguably, no demographic has been more critical to Democrats' recent success than women.
Women were critical to the "blue wave" election of 2018, and were the most significant voting bloc behind Joe Biden's 2020 victory over President Donald Trump. Women also turned out in force during the 2022 midterms, helping Democrats maintain control of the Senate in an election many believed heavily favored Republicans.
New survey data, however, suggests that in several swing states President Biden likely needs to carry to win reelection in 2024, women—more than any other group—are more willing to support a third-party candidate. And it comes at a time experts believe the Democratic coalition needs to stay united more than ever.
According to a HarrisX poll of eight battleground states published August 22, women voters in blue-leaning battleground states like Nevada and Wisconsin support a third option on the ballot at higher rates than men, while overwhelming majorities of men and women in other states like Michigan, Arizona and Florida say they want another option.
And it's largely due to the candidates. While few women believe Trump—who won less than 45 percent of their vote in 2020—should run be running for a second term, enthusiasm for a second Biden term is lacking in several swing states. In Michigan, for example, 3-in-4 women say Biden should not run again, while 78 percent of women in North Carolina and Nevada say they don't support a second Biden term.
The poll was commissioned by political non-profit No Labels, an organization that has been weighing the possibility of mounting a third-party challenge to Biden or Trump. The group has been subject to controversy over allegations it could play "spoiler" in the 2024 race after data in their polling showed a moderate, third-party option could potentially siphon more votes from a Democratic candidate than a Republican one.
That could be a key point for a third-party campaign's appeal to women in 2024. But the survey question doesn't judge whether women would absolutely support one if it was on the ticket—only if they would be supportive of the option. And there could be bigger issues on the ballot.
In the 2022 midterms, exit polling showed that 53 percent of women voted Democratic. Women also turned out at a higher rate than men, for a total of 52 percent of all ballots cast.
The second-leading issue among voters that year was abortion rights, which was considered the top issue for 27 percent of the electorate in CNN exit polling and has continued to prove a winning issue at the ballot box.
Newsweek reached out to No Labels via email for comment.
About the writer
Nick Reynolds is a senior politics reporter at Newsweek. A native of Central New York, he previously worked as a ... Read more