Blackouts Could Hit Texas on Christmas as Arctic Blast Threatens Grid

Texans could have a dark, cold Christmas if an Arctic blast headed east continues its path.

Texas suffered a massive power grid failure in February 2021 after three severe winter storms and frigid temperatures stressed the grid. The grid's failure resulted in millions of Texans losing power, leading to a lack of food, water and warmth. The failure proved fatal, and hundreds died because of the outage. The failure dealt a blow to the economy as well, resulting in a loss of at least $195 billion.

Since the 2021 power grid failure, other uncharacteristic storms have hit the Lone Star State, but none have threatened the grid to the same extent. According to one meteorologist, that could change by Christmas.

WCNC Meteorologist Brad Panovich shared a forecast depicting temperatures for the next two weeks. Much of Texas will be subject to much colder than normal temperatures for several days over Christmas.

"The bigger story going forward is the Arctic blast that moves into the west first then pushing east for Christmas," Panovich tweeted. "The Texas Grid is going to be tested again."

The forecast shows Texas experiencing a quick cold blast with temperatures as cold as 17 degrees lower than the average before returning to normal on December 19. Texas is expected to be hit with a warm spell roughly three days before Christmas, but the temperatures plunge beginning December 23 and continue to dip through Christmas.

The entirety of the state is expected to have colder than normal temperatures, with northern Central Texas subject to the coldest temperatures as low as 30 degrees colder than the state's average. Temperatures begin to ease after Christmas, but the state could still be subject to temps that are 14 degrees lower than the average for late December.

In 2021, the grid was pummeled by frigid temperatures, ice and snow, making it an especially dangerous environment for the southern state. In the days leading up to Christmas, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter expects the storms to miss Texas on the days that frigid temperatures are felt throughout the state, but it's something the weather team is watching closely.

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"There's going to be a notable surge of arctic air into Texas and it will be very chilly," Porter told Newsweek. "Single digits will be achieved some nights as far south as the suburbs of Dallas."

The extreme cold is only expected to last for one or two nights in Texas, which might allow the power grid to continue operating since the cold likely won't be accompanied by damaging storms forecasting ice and snow. However, Porter said the cold temperatures do stress the grid, and the upcoming cold nights will reveal how resilient the grid is to cold temperatures.

After the February 2021 failure, Harvard Kennedy School faculty spoke with energy expert Bill Hogan and sought answers to why the grid struggled during the severe weather. Hogan responded that the storms caused low temperatures statewide, which was an "unusual event".

"When the problem is large enough or everywhere is in trouble, the same instantaneous response can propagate the damage and produce a total system failure," Hogan said.

KUT radio station in Austin, Texas, published an article last month that acknowledges if the state falls victim to uncommonly severe winter storms and temperatures such as those experienced in February 2021, the grid could experience a repeat failure.

The report provided information from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas' quarterly Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy, which found under the "most extreme conditions", there could be a lack of power again.

Over the summer, when heat records were set in the state, Abbott's press secretary, Renae Eze, told Newsweek this about Texas' power grid: "Since May, Texas has set and broken power demand records 26 times without any systemwide issues or disruptions for the more than 26 million Texans served by the electric grid.

"The ERCOT power grid has been able to meet those challenges and respond in record ways, providing more power than ever before and doing so more efficiently, in large part because of the reforms passed last session and the increase in power generation by more than 15 percent over last year."