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The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is monitoring a caravan of migrants making its way to the U.S. ahead of next week's elections, a department spokesperson told Newsweek.
Republicans are expected to take back at least one chamber of Congress during Tuesday's elections, if not both, which could make it tougher for asylum-seekers to arrive in the U.S. Although it's unclear exactly how the GOP could change the immigration landscape, Republican lawmakers have promised to push for stricter border security.
"The information that these migrant caravans have is that after that date, policies will be hardened," Guatemalan Interior Minister Napoleon Barrientos told the Daily Caller, adding that Guatemala is conducting "operations in our borders to stop the flow migration."
The DHS spokesperson told Newsweek that the agency's knowledge of the caravan is not based on a single report, but from comprehensive analysis, suggesting that the department has other information related to the caravan's travel to the U.S.
Republicans have seized on the record-breaking number of migrants who have crossed into the U.S. since the administration of President Joe Biden took office. They've blasted the White House for its response to the influx and transported migrants from border states, like Texas and Arizona, to northern cities led by Democratic officials, like Washington, D.C., and New York City.
Margaret Peters, associate professor of political science at UCLA, said that the main reason migrants travel in large groups, like the reported caravan, is because there is safety in numbers. Peters told Newsweek it's common practice for migrants to band together when traveling as a way to avoid abuse from gangs or authorities while on the road.
"Immigration is a very important issue to the Republican base," she said. "Increasing fears of a caravan coming to the US border is a way to keep the issue at the top of minds of Republican voters and hopefully get them to turn out for an election."
Immigration has historically been a key voting issue for many Americans. A new Gallup poll released on Monday found that immigration is the fifth-most important issue for voters headed to the polls next week. The economy remains the top voting issue this year, followed by abortion and crime. Nearly 90 percent of respondents said immigration was an important issue when it comes to whom voters would choose for Congress. Thirty-seven percent said the issue was "extremely important," while only 12 percent said it was "not that important."
The extent to which voters are concerned about immigration is even more pronounced among those living in border states like Texas, where more than half of Republican voters say immigration and border security is the most important topic, according to an October 21 poll from the University of Texas at Austin. The issue is even more striking, and important for Democrats to address, in border states where hotly watched Senate races are playing out.
In Arizona, where incumbent Senator Mark Kelly has a 3.3-point lead over Republican Blake Masters, immigration moves up to third as the most important issue facing voters. A CBS poll released this month found that over half of voters in the state say immigration has changed where they live, and of those impacted by the issue, nine in 10 say the topic is very important in their 2022 vote. Among voters who place importance on immigration, Masters leads big, with more than double the support of Kelly, 68 percent to 31 percent.
While experts point out that flagging the arrival of caravans may do little to actually affect immigration policies, keeping it top of mind could present a "punishing conundrum" for Democrats scrambling to keep control of the Senate, Michael Sharpe, an associate professor at CUNY York College and the Graduate Center, said. While humanitarian projects related to asylum-seekers is right in the Democrats' wheelhouse, Republicans have have used the influx of migrants against that assumption, arguing that Democrats are too soft on the border.
Sharpe told Newsweek it's likely the GOP will promote and take advantage of ideas that there is an urgent and out-of-control migrant crisis spurred by Democratic policies, which could "add to the predicted surge for the Republicans in the midterm elections."
However, Sharpe said voters could also be more inclined to vote for the Democrats, who could respond to another large migration by emphasizing humanitarian protections for asylum-seekers.
A Monday poll conducted by Democratic firm Hart Research Associates suggests that this is the case for voters in key battleground states, raising concerns as to whether the GOP strategy to focus on caravans ahead of Election Day could backfire and give Democrats the boost they desperately need in a series of close Senate races.
Among likely voters in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 73 percent said they support offering legal status to unauthorized immigrants under certain circumstances. Only 23 percent of the voters in these states said unauthorized immigrants should be deported. The Senate races in all five states have been declared a "Toss Up" by the Cook Political Report.
Experts stress that while politicians on both sides of the aisle may see an opportunity to use the movement of migrants for a final midterm push, U.S. politics may only make asylum-seekers from Central America more vulnerable to the dangerous trek north.
University of Albany's Rey Koslowski said that many of the migrants who may think they need to arrive before a red midterm surge likely are not aware that the new Congress would not come into power until next year. Even if the GOP wins congressional majorities, Biden would still have veto power over anti-immigration legislation.
"Seems like the smugglers who are trying to sell their services to Nicaraguans, Venezuelans, Cubans and others in Central America have found another marketing angle," Koslowski told Newsweek, adding that smugglers may turn to the midterms to counter the Biden administration's latest humanitarian parole program.
On October 12, the administration announced that it would offer up to 24,000 Venezuelan migrants a narrow legal path into the U.S. but that it would also extend the use of Title 42, a pandemic-era health rule that expels those who illegally cross the border, to Venezuelans.
The move had been largely seen by Republicans as a way for Democrats to soften tensions at the southern border and make an appeal to voters that the White House was taking action on the GOP talking point. It has also drawn criticism from immigration groups, who warn the move abolishes the legal right to asylum.
A senior DHS official this month defended the use of Title 42, saying the department is "under a court ordered obligation" to continue implementing the order, citing litigation from May that left the policy in place, although it did not require its use to be expanded.
About the writer
Katherine Fung is a Newsweek senior reporter based in New York City. She has covered U.S. politics and culture extensively. ... Read more