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The Ukrainian government announced Wednesday it will ban the export of agricultural products like wheat to make sure its citizens are fed amid Russia's invasion.
The lack of wheat exports will affect the world's wheat supply chain, especially in the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA), according to the Middle East Institute (MEI). Adding to food insecurity fears is the fact that China's agricultural minister said the country's winter wheat crop this year could be the "worst in history," Reuters reported.
Together, these two situations could mean some of the world's most populous countries will face supply shortages in the coming months. Russia and Ukraine are the world's first and fifth top wheat exporters, respectively, and accounted for more than 25 percent of globally exported wheat in 2020, according to the World's Top Exports site.
In a statement posted to Facebook and the government's website, Roman Leshchenko, Ukraine's minister of agrarian policy and food, announced the ban on wheat, oats, millet, buckwheat, sugar, salt, cattle and beef. He said the measure was implemented to prevent a "humanitarian crisis" in Ukraine, promote "market stability" and "meet the needs of the population in critical food products."
Wheat and a few other products—like corn, sunflower oil and meat and eggs from domestic chickens—can still be exported if the farmer obtains a special license, Leshchenko added.
The food supply shortage will likely be especially problematic in the MENA region, as 50 percent of its wheat exports went to that region in 2020, the MEI reported. Half of Lebanon's and nearly half of Libya's wheat are imported from Ukraine, while Egypt gets most of its corn from the country, the report added.
Ukraine exports 95 percent of its grain via the Black Sea. "Extensive conflict or a blockade of the Black Sea would limit the agricultural products available to MENA countries, giving rise to a potential food crisis," the MEI report said.
Chris Barrett, the Stephen B. and Janice G. Ashley professor of applied economics and management at Cornell, told Newsweek that most people in the agriculture industry have been anticipating decreased exports from Ukraine and Russia.
"Most of Ukraine's wheat exports from its 2021 harvests have already been evacuated. By now, they have left Ukraine, and Baltic Sea ports have already been shut down," he said. "So effectively there's been no exporting of wheat from Ukraine since the war began, and this would be a relatively low season for exports anyway."
Tang Renjian, China's minister of agriculture and rural affairs, said a survey of the country's winter wheat crop from before the season began found the amount of first- and second-grade crop had decreased by over 20 percent, Reuters reported.
Barrett said that while China is not a large wheat exporter, it is a big consumer of wheat, so when its own production is down, it will try to import more than it normally would. And with fewer exports from Russia and Ukraine, China will have fewer places to look in order to fill its wheat supply.
The Russian invasion has driven up global oil prices, which will have an effect on the agriculture industry. Barrett said that for every dollar consumers around the world pay for food, only about 20 to 25 percent of it goes to the agricultural commodity, while the rest is paying for "value addition," a big portion of that being transport. These transport vehicles require fuel, making the surge in oil prices potentially more of a problem than the wheat price increases, he added.
"The key thing to note here is that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is directly hitting the dinner tables of hungry people all around the world because it's driving up agricultural commodity prices, not just for wheat," Barrett said.
Update 03/09/22, 11:55 a.m. ET: This story was updated to add more background and information, as well as comments from Cornell professor Chris Barrett.
