Who Won Georgia Debate Between Stacey Abrams, Brian Kemp? Analyst Verdict

Republican Governor Brian Kemp and Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams showed their contrasting opinions in their debate on Monday night as the November 8 midterm elections quickly approach.

Much of the conversation focused on the issues of crime, the 2020 pandemic, and the election, as well as touching upon education.

Georgia, which leaned Republican until President Joe Biden narrowly won the state in the 2020 presidential election, is facing several big elections this year.

Abrams and Kemp stand on opposite sides of several key issues, with most of the problems exacerbated since the last time the two faced off four years ago.

Following the debate, questions remain as to who came out on top.

Kemp hopes to maintain his position, Abrams hopes to avoid a close loss to Kemp as in 2018, while the somewhat unknown candidate of the Libertarian Party, Shane Hazel, could steal votes away from both candidates.

The unremarkable and civilised debate is unlikely to shift minds of Georgia voters significantly, which may eventually work in Kemp's favor, according to two political science professors.

No Minds Changed, Yet

Speaking to Newsweek, Professor of political science Scott H. Ainsworth of the school of public international affairs, University of Georgia, said he did not feel the debate would likely change the mind of many Georgians.

"Abrams and Kemp were the most seasoned debaters. Hazel had some strong exchanges, but they were less consistently strong, he said.

"There were no big stumbles, so I don't see the debate changing many people's minds."

Professor Ainsworth also explained why Kemp may find it easier to keep his seat than Abrams to unseat him. "Abrams was certainly aiming some comments to core African American voters. Her support among African American males had slipped some, and I think the references to her brothers were important. Humanizing.

"Kemp ran on a strong record. His responses highlighted the power of incumbency. It is always hard to unseat an incumbent, so this is Kemp's race to lose.

"If we need a runoff, as Hazel intimated, Kemp will likely prevail because Republicans have always had an easier time mobilizing supporters twice. In runoffs, Democrat mobilization often falls off."

Shane Hazel 'Biggest Winner'

Professor Carl Cavalli of the University of North Georgia, in the Political Science and International Affairs department, also spoke to Newsweek and gave his takeaways from the debate.

He noted that the debate's "biggest winner" was Shane Hazel, but also highlighted that he has no chance of winning overall.

He too argued that the debate is unlikely to shift the mind of many but highlighted how Kemp may eventually come out ahead.

"Unlike the recent Walker/Warnock Senate debate, there was no audience. That means the candidates had no way to 'play' to an audience. They probably tried anyway, but no audience means any applause lines have little to no effect.

"In general, Kemp defended his administration, Abrams attacked Kemp's tenure as governor and proposed different solutions to issues covered, and Mr. Hazel generally touted the virtues of libertarianism.

Remaining Civil

"Once or twice, the debate deteriorated into two or three candidates shouting over one another, but overall, I think it was a very civilized debate.

"I think one key exchange probably typified the distinction between Abrams and Kemp, and that was over the issue of Georgia's budget surplus.

"Kemp proposes using the surplus to cover more tax cuts for Georgians, while Abrams proposes using the surplus to fund new programs to help Georgians."

Professor Cavalli also reflected on the overall eventual outcome of the election.

Possible Runoff

"Shane Hazel may become the choice for a few voters who do not feel comfortable with either major party candidate," he said.

"Having said that, Mr. Hazel has no chance of winning and will likely get less than five percent of the vote.

"His biggest influence may be taking votes away from Governor Kemp on election day. He may be able to deny Gov. Kemp a majority of the vote on election day, resulting in a runoff between Kemp and Abrams.

"It is very likely that those Republicans and independents who abandon Gov. Kemp on election day may very well return to him in the runoff. I don't think this debate will change enough minds to affect the eventual outcome of this race."