The Truth About Bud Light Brewery's Stock and Sales Since Mulvaney Fallout

Bud Light has faced outrage from conservatives and calls for a boycott since transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney's social media post on April 1 about receiving a commemorative can of the beer.

Anheuser-Busch, Bud Light's parent company, has been accused of alienating its traditional customer base with the partnership, while some LGBTQ+ campaigners have also criticized the company for not defending its ties with Mulvaney.

Amid the backlash over the partnership, recent industry data shows sales of Bud Light in the U.S. have declined dramatically, with some of those pushing for a boycott claiming responsibility for a recent drop in Anheuser-Busch's stock price.

But, analysts told Newsweek, while the future of the beer brand's value remains "uncertain," the investment market views the boycott as "a non-event" when it comes to Anheuser-Busch's global revenues.

How Have Bud Light Sales Changed?

Anheuser-Busch's financial results for the first quarter of 2023—a period before Mulvaney's social media post—were released on May 4, showing the company's total revenue had grown 13.2 percent, with beer volumes up 0.4 percent. It reported an underlying profit of more than $1.3 billion.

Those figures represent revenue from all of Anheuser-Busch's brands, including Bud Light, Beck's, Leffe, Hoegaarden, Skol, Brahma and Quilmes.

In a call with investors the same day as the announcement, Michel Doukeris, the company's CEO, acknowledged declining Bud Light sales, saying they represented about one percent of Anheuser-Busch's global volumes.

"With respect to the current situation and the impact of Bud Light sales, it is too early to have a full view," he added.

Previously, trade publication Beer Business Daily reported off-premises sales of Bud Light—those taking place outside hospitality venues such as bars and restaurants—had fallen 26 percent in the week ending April 22, compared with the same week in 2022.

It followed figures from NielsenIQ and Bump Williams Consulting, which pointed to an overall 17 percent decline in sales revenue for Bud Light, with sales volumes down 21 percent for the week ending April 15. The industry data indicated the brand's competitors had absorbed the demand.

While those who called for a boycott have celebrated the decline in sales, the report did not give a reason for the drop, and other factors may have played a role.

Anheuser-Busch's annual report, which will likely include sales data since the fallout, is expected at the end of July.

Newsweek contacted the company via email for comment on Tuesday.

Anheuser-Busch's Stock Price Changes

Anheuser-Busch's market capitalization—the total value of a company's shares—had topped out at more than $134 billion on March 31. As of May, this had shrunk to just under $130.5 billion, a drop of less than 3 percent.

However, the recent fluctuations in its stock price appear as marginal peaks and troughs in a plateau following a six-month upward trend, rising from $45.23 on October 20 to $64.68 on Monday, May 8. Even this is about half of what Anheuser-Busch stock was worth in 2016, when it was trading at more than $120.

Jeremy Bowman, a contributing analyst at The Motley Fool, an investment advice firm, told Newsweek that the company's stock had been "mostly flat" since the fallout over Mulvaney's social media post began, adding: "I wouldn't conclude that investor perception of the company or the stock has changed much since the controversy broke out."

While he recognized the impact of boycotts on sales of Bud Light in the U.S., "you have to remember that Anheuser-Busch is a giant global company, and even though Bud Light is the top-selling beer in the U.S, its contribution to the company's total revenue isn't much more than a drop in the bucket."

"Overall, it seems like the market basically views that as a non-event," Bowman said.

In his May 4 call, Doukeris sought to calm any investor nerves, telling shareholders that the company had "significantly increased our investments behind the brand in the U.S." He added that it would be tripling its media spend over the summer.

Bowman suggested that Doukeris' words showed "the management team is hustling to repair the brand and seems to be confident there won't be a lasting impact."

Anheuser-Busch's latest financial results, Bowman said, "shows the overall company was performing fine" before the controversy over Mulvaney's social media post.

Will Bud Light Lose Value?

Before 2019, Bud Light was for a long time one of the world's most valuable beer brands, according to brand valuation consultancy Brand Finance, which quantifies the financial value of brands using metrics such as marketing investment, stakeholder equity and business performance.

In its beer ranking for 2022, Bud Light placed fourth, with an estimated value of $4.5 billion—up 15 percent on the previous year.

Asked about how the brand might be valued this year, Laurence Newell, Brand Finance managing director for the Americas, told Newsweek that it was "uncertain" whether the Mulvaney controversy would have "a significant effect in the long run."

Referring to the recent decline in Bud Light sales, he said: "If this trend continues, analysts may need to reconsider their forecasts."

However, Newell noted that Brand Finance calculated values on a yearly basis to reflect longer-term trends.

"In light of the recent controversy surrounding Bud Light's marketing campaign, an effective way to measure impact on the brand is by examining its implications on brand strength," Newell added. "While it is likely that there will be an increase in promotion through heightened ad recall and word-of-mouth, it is also probable that there will be a decrease in consideration, recommendation, reputation, loyalty, and short-term usage for Bud Light."

Other factors may also have an impact on the beer brand's value, such as the success of Mexican beer imports.

Corona was the world's most valuable beer brand in 2022, according to Brand Finance, with an estimated value of $7 billion—up 21 percent from the year prior—while Modelo jumped seven places to fifth, with an increase of 16 percent to $3.9 billion sales.

Washington Post analysis in April suggested Bud Light sales were dropping, in part because of a notable rise in Mexican beer imports facilitated by an Obama-era anti-trust action that limited Anheuser-Busch's domination of the U.S. market.

So what next for Bud Light and its maker? How Anheuser-Busch reacts to the controversy will play a big part in how it is valued, Newell indicated.

"We know more often than not brand value and brand strength is more about recovery rather than the crisis itself," Newell said. "It remains to be seen whether Bud Light can recover from this controversy by upping its investment and engaging their audience in a more meaningful way."