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If Pennsylvania finishes its vote count Thursday, it could be the deciding state in the presidential election.
With 20 electoral votes, Pennsylvania has the ability to deliver a presidential victory to former Vice President Joe Biden. As of Thursday evening, the Democratic candidate had 264 electoral votes, according to the Associated Press, putting him just six votes shy of the 270 needed to win.
State laws prohibited Pennsylvania counties from starting their counting of mail-in ballots until Election Day, and with the many ballots cast through the postal service, officials warned it could take days. By law, poll workers have until Friday to finish counting ballots, and Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar told CNN on Thursday they're "ahead of schedule." Therefore, the winner of the state "definitely could" be announced by the end of the day, she said.
People tuning in for the results on election night might have thought Trump was the clear winner in Pennsylvania, but his lead over Biden has shrunk considerably over the past two days. On Wednesday morning, the president had nearly 700,000 more votes than his challenger, but as of Thursday afternoon that advantage had shrunk to just 97,924 votes. About 86 percent of the votes had been reported, and as mail-in ballots continue to be counted, Biden is expected to further narrow the gap.
Barring outstanding litigation, including suits filed in Pennsylvania, and potential recounts changing the results in other states, Biden will take the presidency if he wins Pennsylvania. This will be true even if Arizona, which the Trump campaign has deemed too close to call, ends up flipping in favor of the president.
However, if Trump pulls out a win in Pennsylvania, it will keep him in the running for a second term and raise his electoral vote count to 234. He would still need victories in the remaining four states to be called—North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and Alaska, however. But if Biden takes Nevada, North Carolina or Georgia, it's over for Trump.
It's possible even these scenarios could change, as the president's campaign has said it intends to request a recount in Wisconsin. According to state rules, a presidential candidate must be within a percentage point of winning to request a recount—at his expense—and Trump lost the state by just .7 points, so he's within the margin to make the request.
However, the Trump campaign can't file a petition for a recount until Wisconsin verifies the results, and if the state pushes up against the deadline, that won't happen until December 1. Depending on how the other states shake out, Wisconsin could become the deciding factor in the presidential race, so it's not out of the question that the Trump campaign will pursue a recount, although that move has come under heavy fire from the president's critics, who consider it a form of voter suppression.
If there is a recount and if it goes in the president's favor, it could put Biden at 254 votes and Trump at 244, assuming he wins Pennsylvania, which must happen for Wisconsin to make a difference. If Trump then wins North Carolina and Georgia, which are leaning in his favor, he'll have the 270 votes needed to become president.
However, that's a lot of ifs. So the bottom line is, if Pennsylvania doesn't go for Trump, it will likely be lights out for the Trump administration.
About the writer
Jenni Fink is a senior editor at Newsweek, based in New York. She leads the National News team, reporting on ... Read more