Can Trump Win Without Murdoch's Media Empire Supporting Him?

With the promise to "Make America Great Again" yet again, Donald Trump is seeking the White House one more time in 2024, despite voices from his own party calling for him to step back for the sake of the GOP. But the context in which Trump will be running is much different than the one that boosted his rise in 2016 and witnessed his much-contested defeat in 2020.

One of the biggest changes is the kind of support Trump now enjoys from major national news channels and media that backed his ascent six years ago.

Following the poor results of most of the Trump-endorsed candidates at the midterms—many of which underperformed compared to those who had not received the former president's support—Rupert Murdoch-owned New York Post blared a front page mocking Trump under the nickname of "Trumpty Dumpty" on November 10. It was a clear sign that Trump has possibly fallen from Murdoch's grace after years of support.

As Trump announced his third presidential bid on Tuesday, Fox News cut away from the livestream of the former president's hour-long speech to allow its conservative pundits to comment on the widely expected news.

What sounds like a minor fact is a resounding signal that the major cable channel, once an unwavering supporter of the former president, is starting to shift away from the controversial leader of the Republican party.

How Important Was The Role Of Media In The Rise Of Trump?

"It's hard to understate how important the media was to the rise of Trump and to Trumpism. Trump is very skilled at turning social media attention and outrage into mainstream coverage," Robert Topinka, a lecturer at Birkbeck, University of London, told Newsweek.

"He realized very early on in his presidential run that nodding and winking at his more extremist and alt-right supporters online was a great way to start a news cycle. If he posted something outrageous on Twitter, it would be all over cable news, and that would itself generate more coverage in newspapers and more discussion on social media.

"This was especially important during the Republican primaries [in 2016], because what should have been his biggest weakness—that he was a political outsider who constantly said outrageous and offensive things—became his biggest strength."

Darren Lilleker, a lecturer and researcher in political communication at the University of Bournemouth, U.K., told Newsweek that, for many years, the media has acted as "an amplifier" for Trump.

"He was a controversial celebrity who frequently said newsworthy things and he transferred that style of communication into his presidential bid. All media gave him significant airtime, the value of which was huge."

Lilleker thinks that the support he received from conservative and alt-right media played a key role in building up Trump's base.

"They gave credibility to many of his spurious claims countering the anti-Trump narrative in the liberal media. This polarised the U.S. The problem between 2016 and 2020 was the chaotic nature of his presidency. It became apparent to many, via media, he was not up to the job."

Topinka thinks that the support of Fox News, in particular, "was massively influential" in Trump's rise.

"It legitimized him as a serious candidate, and it made the biggest cable news platform in America his personal soapbox. But the constant outrage and criticism from liberal media actually helped him too because it fed the persecution narrative that is so key to Trump and Trumpism."

Stoking the outrage cycle worked for Trump in 2016, "but by 2020 it was working against him," said Topinka.

Despite the controversy surrounding Trump in recent years, including his role in promoting the false claims that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him, the former president still enjoys a wide following—but the negative turnout of the midterms has delivered a blow to Trump.

"Trump's problem now is the narrative that he is a loser," said Lilleker. With something like 40 percent commitment to each party both need a candidate that looks like a winner. After the midterms he doesn't, and that will lead Republicans to abandon him."

Can Trump Win Without The Support Of Major Conservative Media?

"Even with Rupert Murdoch saying he won't back Trump, it's difficult for conservative media to extricate themselves from years of supporting him," Topinka said.

"Like it or not, they're operating in the media world they helped Trump build. For now, Trump and Trumpism are still the dominant force in conservative media. The midterms' results suggests that conservative voters are tired of the 'Stop the Steal' narrative, so it could be that Trump is losing some of his appeal, but it's easy to forget that more people voted for Trump in 2020 than they did in 2016.

"Trumpism will continue to cast a shadow over the Republican Party for the foreseeable future. The question for 2024 really is whether DeSantis or Trump can capture the energy of Trumpism," Topinka added.

Catherine Tebaldi, a linguistic anthropology researcher at the University of Luxembourg studying far-right ideology, told Newsweek that even though some conservative media may sway, "the far-right and the loudest part of the online base still support him, as do the mainstream youth organizations like Turning Point U.S.A. [a conservative non-profit]."

Topinka agrees that Trump "certainly hasn't lost the far-right wing of conservative media, television networks like OANN, or online platforms like The Blaze or his following among QAnoners and other extremists who are very active online."

Though more mainstream conservative outlets are starting to distance themselves from Trump, including Fox News, "a lot of conservative media went so far down the road with Trump that it's hard for them to turn back now," Topinka added.

"Sean Hannity and many other key Fox News personalities are fully committed to Trumpism. Tucker Carlson speaks the language of Trumpism—he nods and winks to extremist ideas, and then when he's called out for it, he claims that liberals are too censorious."

Tebaldi thinks that the significance of Fox News and Murdoch turning their back on Trump "is really a question of how much Fox and others are still relevant to Trumpism," she said.

"While they boosted awareness for him pre-2016, now Trump has become such a figure in alternative media discourses that I'm not sure Fox pulling support will change much—it may just make him look still more like the outsider he pretends to be," Tebaldi added.