The Tiny Islets That Could Spark a US-China War

A quartet of Chinese coast guard ships steamed through the East China Sea to the Japan-held Senkaku Islands on Monday, becoming the latest to dare a Japanese response in an area the United States says it is treaty-bound to defend.

The Chinese vessels entered the territorial waters around the islands at around 10:30 a.m. local time and departed two hours later, according to Japan's coast guard—significantly shorter than the record 80 hours they spent in the area this past spring.

The Senkakus—five uninhabited islets and three barren rocks—sit about 120 miles northeast of Taiwan and 200 miles southwest of Japan's Okinawa prefecture. Beijing and Taipei also claim ownership of the territory, but only one, China, has been pushing the envelope.

The United States doesn't take a position on sovereignty over the islands, but it recognizes Japan's control over them as part of the regional status quo. In 2014, President Barack Obama became the first American leader to publicly declare that the U.S.-Japan security treaty extended to the Senkakus, too.

The commitment meant that the United States, which maintains some 50,000 troops in Japan, would be legally obliged to respond with force to any attack on Japanese government assets in the area.

Since 2012, China has deployed an average of 8.3 maritime law enforcement ships into the 12-nautical mile territorial waters around the islands, according to a report in January by the Congressional Research Service. Tokyo nationalized the islands that year, triggering protests by the Chinese government over what it has called its "inherent territory."

There is also an economic factor at play: studies suggest untapped reservoirs of oil and natural gas may lie beneath the waves—a potential boon to both resource-strapped countries.

Monday was the 25th such intrusion this year and the first since September 24, with recent storms in the area possibly disrupting what was otherwise a regular trend.

But it's not only the number of ships that raises concerns—it's the tonnage, said Ken Jimbo, a professor at Keio University and a former adviser to Japan's Defense Ministry.

"The China Coast Guard's total number of vessels is growing (nearly double the size of the Japan Coast Guard)," Jimbo told Newsweek.

In May, a Japanese coast guard report said China was operating 157 cruisers and cutters with a displacement of over 1,000 tons, compared to Japan's 71 cutters. Some of the larger Chinese ships were equipped with autocannons, anti-aircraft guns and guided missiles.

Two years ago, Beijing passed a law authorizing its coast guard fleet to exercise lethal force to enforce its territorial claims, setting off alarm bells in the region.

At a meeting this month with Japanese counterpart Kihara Minoru, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the two countries faced shared challenges from China, North Korea and Russia. Austin also stressed Washington's "ironclad" obligation to defend Japan under their security treaty, including in the Senkakus.

"Until about 2009 or 2010 the United States government didn't give much thought to the Senkakus. But when the Chinese started to apply real pressure on the Senkakus, the Americans were forced to address the issue. The Japanese were of course insisting that the U.S. make a clear statement regarding the Senkakus," said Grant Newsham, a retired Marine colonel who served alongside Japan's defense forces.

"These days, it is widely understood in U.S. circles that if the United States does not help Japan defend the Senkakus, it might fatally damage the Japan-U.S. defense and political relationships. Japan is counting on it," said Newsham, who is now a senior fellow at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies think tank and author of When China Attacks: A Warning to America.

While the risks of further escalation remained, Jimbo said, communication mechanisms between China and Japan were holding up—for now. In the meantime, Japanese and American policymakers were rushing to react.

Late last year, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio set in motion a plan to double Japan's defense spending to 2 percent by 2027.

Japan, whose postwar constitution restricts its military actions to self-defense, has also made room for a "counterstrike capability"—to hit faraway enemy bases—in order defend Japanese territory and potentially take part in joint defense efforts with its allies.

Tokyo is set to acquire hundreds of U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missiles starting in 2025 before it builds up its own defense industrial capacity. The move, one year ahead of schedule, was made "in light of the increasingly severe security environment," Kihara said.

"We have been clear on our concerns regarding [China's] escalation and provocation in the Indo-Pacific, to include the East China Sea," U.S. Defense Department spokesperson Lt. Col. Martin Meiners told Newsweek on Monday.

The United States and Japan would continue to cooperate on their "shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific region," Meiners said.

Whether Beijing's so-called "grey zone" activities lead to a wider escalation was "a matter entirely under Chinese control," according to Newsham.

"The Chinese will start a fight whenever they think the time is right. Indeed, they would like nothing more than for the Japanese to fire—even just one shot. Beijing would then claim they were provoked into defending themselves," he said. "Japan has not taken the bait."

China's Foreign Ministry and Japan's Defense Ministry didn't respond to separate written requests for comment before publication.

Update 10/11/23, 4:00 a.m.: This article was updated with additional comments.