🎙️ Voice is AI-generated. Inconsistencies may occur.
There's no winning in an invasion of Taiwan, Taipei's spy chief said on Thursday, predicting pariah status for China if it chose to attack the neighboring island it claims as its own.
Chen Ming-tong, who heads Taiwan's National Security Bureau, said Beijing was "playing the same old tune" over the weekend when President Xi Jinping reaffirmed his desire to "unify" the island—peacefully if possible, but by force if necessary.
Xi has articulated his belief that the "Taiwan question"—its future political status—cannot be left unresolved indefinitely. He has hinted at mid-century, the People's Republic of China's centennial in 2049, as a potential deadline, but most subject-matter experts believe Beijing neither has a long-term plan, nor a fixed date in mind.
"There's no chance of winning an armed attack on Taiwan," Chen said before a committee hearing in Taiwan's parliament. "It will only bring international sanctions against them and diplomatic isolation."
"It would ruin their so-called great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. They would become a sinner of the Chinese nation," he said in blunt remarks addressed to the "Beijing authorities."
On Sunday, Xi opened the Chinese Communist Party's 20th National Congress, a weeklong event that is widely expected to end with his retaining power over the party and the country for a norm-busting third five-year term.
The Chinese leader touted the party's political achievements in his decade at the helm. He emphasized long-term targets, including his desire for China to become a leading science and technology powerhouse.
Chen said China became the world's second-largest economy "without unifying Taiwan." The island could also be proud of its own achievements, such as its role as a top producer of high-end semiconductors and its growing GDP per capita—set to overtake South Korea and Japan this year, he said.
"These were accomplished without the CCP's rule," said Taiwan's intelligence chief. "It's clear that both sides of the Taiwan Strait should respect one another and each develop in their own way."
"Repeatedly threatening to use force against Taiwan will definitely make them a sinner of the Chinese nation," Chen said.
Beijing proposes a Hong Kong-style "one country, two systems" model to govern Taiwan. Taipei rejects the plan, saying only the island's 23 million people can decide its future.
At the Taiwanese legislature's Foreign and National Defense Committee, Chen was asked about recent remarks by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who told a Hoover Institution event on Monday that China was "determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline."
Chen said his agency was assessing multiple possibilities, to include widely cited U.S. predictions like 2025, 2027 and 2030.
American and Taiwanese officials say armed conflict across the Taiwan Strait would have a devastating impact on the global economy by disrupting trade routes and cutting off key supply chains.
"They may attack Taiwan to divert domestic pressure," Chen told one lawmaker.
"The most likely scenario in 2023 is an attempt to force [Taiwan into] negotiations with military coercion," he told another legislator.
President Tsai Ing-wen's cabinet members were testifying in parliament this week to justify proposals to increase defense spending and other budgets next year.
On Wednesday, Taiwan's defense minister, Chiu Kuo-cheng, was also asked about Blinken's comments. He told reporters before a committee session: "Our military has to prepare for what happens in the next hour, or the next second."
"They may want to postpone or bring forward [their plans]. We have our own schedule; we are not indifferent," Chiu said.
Later in committee, Chiu told an opposition lawmaker that indicators of an imminent invasion would include Chinese troop movements, missile tests, expanded and closer military drills, or relevant intelligence intercepts.
"We have not seen any of these signs," he said. "As the 20th party congress continues, their hope is to maintain stability."
Taipei would continue to assess all possibilities, he said.
About the writer
John Feng is Newsweek's contributing editor for Asia based in Taichung, Taiwan. His focus is on East Asian politics. He ... Read more