China's Ready for a Trade War. The U.S. Isn't. Here's Why | Opinion

President Donald Trump has announced tariffs reaching up to 54 percent on Chinese imports, continuing his trade war with China from his first time in office. But this time, the stakes are different, and Beijing's response has caught Washington off guard.

Instead of triggering panic in Beijing, Trump's announcement has been met with strategic calculation. Chinese officials didn't mirror the tariff escalation in kind. They went for precision. China strategically targeted $15 billion in U.S. agricultural exports, delivering a precise blow to Republican strongholds during peak planting season. The timing compounds the economic anxieties of already-struggling farmers.

In this war of attrition, Beijing isn't just retaliating, it's evolving. Since the first iteration of Trump's trade war in 2018, China has restructured its import portfolio, welcoming Brazil and Russia. American agricultural products once made-up 40 percent of China's market; that amount has fallen below 20 percent. Brazil and Russia are now supplying China's growing demand with fewer political strings attached.

The shift in agricultural trade is only part of the story. Beijing has begun weaponizing its dominance in the rare earths market, curbing exports of critical minerals used in semiconductors, electric vehicles, and defense systems. These are not reactive moves; they are part of a long game—a strategic recalibration that has been years in the making.

There is an inconvenient truth at the heart of Washington's tariff strategy: unilateral economic coercion is losing its edge. What may have looked like leverage in 2017 now risks alienating allies, destabilizing domestic industries, and accelerating the very multipolar world the U.S. seeks to forestall.

Europe, once broadly aligned with U.S. efforts to pressure China, is showing signs of disillusionment. The European Union recently joined China in filing a World Trade Organization complaint against Washington's tariff hikes. Even in the Global South, countries like Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa are pivoting toward Beijing, drawn by investment, market access, and a narrative of economic non-interference.

Meanwhile, America's traditional strengths—scale, supply chain dominance, and innovation—are being countered in real time. Since 2020, China has tripled its semiconductor output, made itself the world's biggest EV manufacturer, and expanded its footprint in green technologies. In 2023 alone, Chinese companies controlled more than 80 percent of the global market for solar panels and nearly 60 percent of global battery production.

China is also quietly building financial alternatives. Its network of currency swap deals now spans more than 40 countries, from Argentina to the United Arab Emirates. The expansion of the BRICS bloc has given Beijing a platform to champion de-dollarization efforts. While these efforts remain nascent, they send a signal: China is preparing for a world where U.S. financial dominance is no longer taken for granted.

To be clear, China has plenty of its own troubles—from a slowing property sector and spiraling youth unemployment to a looming demographic crunch. But what's become evident is that Beijing has managed to absorb external shocks with remarkable resilience, while U.S. farmers, manufacturers, and small businesses are feeling the brunt of an increasingly costly standoff.

The larger problem is strategic drift. Tariffs may be satisfying political theater, but they are no substitute for a long-term economic strategy. They alienate allies, distort markets, and invite countermeasures that ripple through supply chains and consumer prices. And they offer little to no roadmap for regaining leadership in the industries of the future.

The Biden administration had largely kept Trump-era tariffs in place, albeit with fewer rhetorical fireworks. But the logic hasn't changed. Washington is still betting that economic pressure alone can compel China to change its behavior. That logic is flawed—and Beijing knows it.

We are not witnessing the rollback of China's global rise. We are witnessing its recalibration. While the U.S. is reaching for the familiar tools of economic statecraft, China is building new ones—more networked, more diversified, and arguably more future-proof. The real question isn't whether tariffs will 'win' the trade war, it's whether the U.S. has the foresight to adapt to a world where economic statecraft takes new forms.

Imran Khalid is a geostrategic analyst and columnist on international affairs. His work has been widely published by prestigious international news organizations and publications.

The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.