Nikki Haley Got What She Wanted. Is It Enough to Beat Trump?

Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie on Wednesday ended his bid for the 2024 Republican nomination, a move which could prove beneficial for former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley in New Hampshire but likely not enough to dent former President Donald Trump's sizable national lead in the polls.

"This helps Haley. Among Christie voters, she is the natural choice, and whatever support Christie had this morning will be with Haley tomorrow," Jay Townsend, a nonpartisan political consultant, told Newsweek.

A CNN poll released on Tuesday conducted by the University of New Hampshire (UNH) illustrates how Christie's followers could help Haley. The poll found Haley had shaved Trump's lead in the New Hampshire primary race to 7 percentage points. If Haley gains a sizable portion of Christie's supporters, she may take the win in the state during its January 23 primary.

The CNN/UNH poll found 39 percent of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire said they would vote for Trump, compared to 32 percent who support Haley. However, the same poll showed 12 percent of the GOP voters said they would back Christie.

But even if Christie's New Hampshire voters propelled Haley to a win in the Granite State, Trump's lead across the country may be too large to overcome.

Harry Enten, senior data reporter at CNN and host of the network's Margins of Error podcast, wrote on X, formerly Twitter, that if Haley places second in Iowa's caucus and first in New Hampshire's primary, "the question/issue is then what?"

"Trump's 50-55 points ahead nationally," Enten said. "Trump also has a significant South Carolina lead, tho it's closer to 30 points."

Following Christie's announcement, Haley released a statement that praised Christie and should play well to his supporters.

"Chris Christie has been a friend for many years. I commend him on a hard-fought campaign," Haley's statement posted on X said. "Voters have a clear choice in this election: the chaos and drama of the past or a new generation of conservative leadership. I will fight to earn every vote, so together we can build a strong and proud America."

Christie has not yet endorsed another candidate in the race, but comments he made before he announced his campaign's end might not sway some of his followers to vote for Haley.

During an apparent hot mic moment, Christie could be heard saying on a livestream that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis had called him. According to Christie, DeSantis was "petrified." He soon spoke of Haley, saying the former South Carolina governor is "going to get smoked," and that "she's not up to this."

The microphone also picked up Christie predicting Haley would not win the New Hampshire primary or the Iowa caucus.

Townsend said that "going forward, what happens in New Hampshire will depend on Iowa. Does Haley place ahead of DeSantis? Does Trump receive less than 50 percent? Should that happen, the storyline will be that Trump lost even though he won, and Haley won even though she lost."

Journalist/Editor Philip Klein wrote in conservative magazine National Review on Wednesday that there are "a few important caveats" to consider if one believes the CNN/UNH poll shows Christie leaving the race benefits Haley in New Hampshire.

"New Hampshire polling can be unreliable given that independents, many of whom are Democrats, can cross over and vote in the Republican primary. This makes it much more difficult for pollsters to predict who is going to show up," Klein wrote, adding that CNN has "whiffed in past races."

"There is also another recent poll in New Hampshire showing Trump so far ahead that Haley couldn't catch him even if she absorbed all of Christie's supporters," Klein added.

Townsend also stressed the unpredictable nature of independent voters in New Hampshire.

"I've worked in New Hampshire. They are smart voters. They pay close attention," he said. "Primary polls are often inaccurate because voters don't make up their mind until the last 72 hours, and one can never be sure how many independents will choose to vote or what ballot they will ask for. This year all the fun is in the Republican race, but it's hard to predict how many will vote."

Update 01/10/24, 8 p.m. ET: This article has been updated to include further information.