Democrat Edges Out Leading Republican in Texas Senate Race—GOP Poll

A new poll of the 2026 Texas Senate race shows Attorney General Ken Paxton, the leading candidate in the Republican primary, trailing former Representative Colin Allred, a Democrat, in the Lone Star State.

Democrats are hoping to make the race for the seat competitive, particularly if Paxton defeats Senator John Cornyn in the GOP primary, but a Cornyn campaign spokesperson told Newsweek the campaign is "confident" in his chances.

Why It Matters

Republicans currently hold a Senate majority with 53 seats, compared to 47 seats held by Democrats. The Democratic Party hopes to take back the majority in the 2026 midterms but face a challenging map. GOP-held seats in Maine, which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris, and North Carolina, which backed President Donald Trump by only about three points in 2024, are viewed as Democrats' best flip opportunities in the midterms.

Beyond those two, they'll have to flip states Trump won by double-digits to reclaim a majority. Other double-digit Trump states they are eyeing include Alaska, Florida, Iowa and Ohio—but Republicans are favored in each of those races.

Texas has for decades been a reliably Republican state. Although it became more competitive in the 2010s, Democrats have been unable to flip it, and the state did move rightward again last year. Still, some Democrats believe it could be competitive next year if Trump's approval fuels a 2018-style "blue wave."

What To Know

On the Republican side, a competitive primary is already brewing between Cornyn and Paxton, who is primarying the incumbent from the right. Paxton has cast Cornyn as insufficiently conservative, but Cornyn has been a well-known senator who has performed well against Democrats in the past.

A new poll from the Senate Leadership Fund, which is supporting Cornyn, showed Paxton leading Cornyn by 10 points in a hypothetical primary, Punchbowl News reported this week. The poll showed Paxton with 44 percent, Cornyn with 34 percent and GOP Representative Wesley Hunt, who has been floated as a potential candidate, with 19 percent.

But in the general election, Cornyn would fare best against Allred, who unsuccessfully challenged GOP Senator Ted Cruz in last year's election, according to the poll. Allred has not officially announced a 2026 Senate campaign, but is widely seen as a likely Democratic contender.

Cornyn led by six points, while Hunt led Allred by four points. Paxton, however, trailed Allred by one point, the poll found.

Newsweek reached out to Paxton's campaign for comment via email.

The poll was conducted April 27 to May 1. The sample size and margin of error have not been reported publicly.

Despite these polls, winning Texas would be a major uphill challenge for Allred or another Democrat. Texas has not voted Democratic on the presidential level since 1976, and has not voted for a Democratic senator since 1988. The state last elected a Democratic governor in 1990.

Texas Senate Race: What Other Polls Say

This isn't the first poll to suggest Cornyn is vulnerable to Paxton in the primary.

A Texas Public Opinion Research poll, conducted with Lake Research Partners, found Cornyn with 27 percent support and Paxton with 38 percent in the primary; 16 percent were still undecided, and 7 percent would vote for someone else. The poll surveyed 700 registered voters in March 2025.

A separate poll in mid-April by a pollster founded by Brad Parscale, formerly Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign manager, showed that in a general election, 52 percent of Texans would likely back Allred against Paxton, who received 37 percent support.

Is Colin Allred Running for Senate? What We Know

Democrats view Allred as a potentially strong candidate as polls show him up against Paxton. Although he fell short against Cruz last year, he performed stronger than Harris in the state.

While Harris lost Texas by about 13.7 points, Allred lost by only 8.5 points, performing stronger in suburban areas as well as the Rio Grande Valley, a heavily Hispanic area that shifted toward Trump last year.

Allred has declined to rule out another Senate run, telling The Dallas Morning News in March he is considering running.

Allred, a former NFL linebacker was first elected to the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterms, flipping a traditionally Republican seat in the Dallas suburbs.

What People Are Saying

Cornyn campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak said in a statement to Newsweek: "Senator Cornyn has a 99 percent voting record with Trump as President and continues to be his close legislative ally. In ten months, when Texas GOP primary voters completely understand the record of both candidates, we are confident we will win."

Allred said during an interview with journalist Tara Palmeri on The Tara Palmeri Show on Thursday: "I'm enjoying raising my two boys, who are four and six and spending a lot of time with my family. So I'll be making that decision this summer. But I will certainly be involved either way in making sure we have a senator who will actually stand up for Texas and for our values."

President Donald Trump told reporters last month: "I like Paxton, I like Cornyn, they're both good people. So, I'll make a decision somewhere along the line. But you have two very good men."

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on X, formerly Twitter, on April 9: "For years, John Cornyn has betrayed President Trump and the America First movement. Texas deserves better, and that's why I'm running for U.S. Senate."

What Happens Next

It is yet to be seen whether Allred or a different Democrat jumps into the Texas Senate race. The Cook Political Report classifies the race as Solid Republican, meaning it is "not considered competitive" nor "likely to become closely contested."

Update 5/15/2025 4:30 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.