The Plan for Collapse of the Colorado River

The Colorado River is in a dire state. The river, which provides water for 40 million people, is drying up rapidly due to the ongoing megadrought in the southwest. Over the last century, the river's flow has dropped by 20 percent, according to data from the U.S. Geological Survey.

Experts have long feared what it will mean for life in the Southwest as we know it, if the situation were to worsen.

But now, we have a glimpse into what life could be like if the crisis worsens to the point where drastic measures need to be taken.

The U.S. Interior Department's Bureau of Reclamation has presented a plan to prevent the complete collapse of the Colorado River.

The Bureau said in a statement on April 11 that there are two potential options, should water levels in the main reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, continue to decline. The Bureau's main goal is to conserve enough water in the Colorado River that it continues to produce hydropower through the Hoover and Glen Canyon Dams.

But, both options to save hydropower come with their own sets of implications for Colorado River basin states, which include Arizona, California, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, and Wyoming.

The first option is based on priority of water rights.

This means water conservation cuts would be based around those who rely on the water most.

Farmers and native tribes would hold a higher priority claim on the water, meaning huge cities in the Southwest would face gigantic cuts.

Around 80 percent of the Colorado River's water is used for agricultural activities. If irrigation to Southwestern farmers were to stop, it would hold implications for not just the region, but for the rest of the U.S.

Under this priority-based approach, those with senior water rights would face minimal cuts, or perhaps none at all.

In California for example, agricultural supplier the Imperial Irrigation District supplies water to 500,000 acres of farmland, the Los Angeles Times reported. It is bodies like this that would be a higher priority for water usage.

But large cities like Los Angeles, Las Vegas and Phoenix also rely on the Colorado River supply.

The Colorado River makes up 90 percent of Las Vegas' total water supply, for example, while Phoenix relies on the Colorado River for 40 percent of its water supplies.

Mark Squillace, a professor of natural resources law and water expert at the University of Colorado Law School, told Newsweek that this option "is likely to significantly reduce deliveries to Arizona in ways that could impact municipal water rights in the Phoenix-Tucson area in the future."

"Arizona has stored a significant amount of water underground in what is called the Arizona Water Bank and this will help them avoid shortages over the short term. If the drought persists, however, these reserves could be depleted and force the State to implement drastic water conservation measures," Squillace said.

The second option is based off a "same percentage" approach. This would see water cuts being spread across the basin states equally, meaning even those with senior priority on the water would have the same cuts as those with lower priority.

Under this approach, all cities, native tribes and irrigators would need to adhere to the same reductions.

Squillace said that this option would probably mean that those with high priority over the Colorado River would suffer.

"California farmers in the Imperial Valley and surrounding areas generally hold the oldest rights in the entire Colorado River system and under Alternative 2, California would see fairly significant reductions in their allocation, up to nearly 1 million acre feet," Squillace said. "California would have to decide how they are going to administer the resulting shortages. Generally, the State is bound by law to honor priorities but California has shown a willingness in the past to use the 'beneficial use' limit on water rights to push farmers to reduce consumption as a means to help ensure adequate municipal supplies."

One of either of these scenarios could be implemented as early as 2024.

There is a third option, but it is not as complex as the other two: to do nothing.

While this option is not being seriously considered by officials, it is included in the plan to present a comparison to the cuts being proposed.

Deputy Interior Secretary Tommy Beaudreau told CNN that it was important to include in order to emphasize the need for cuts.

In a statement, Beaudreau said that, where the Colorado River basin is concerned, "failure is not an option."

"Recognizing the severity of the worsening drought, the Biden-Harris administration is bringing every tool and every resource to bear through the President's Investing in America agenda to protect the stability and sustainability of the Colorado River System now and into the future."

"Drought conditions in the Colorado River Basin have been two decades in the making. To meet this moment, we must continue to work together, through a commitment to protecting the river, leading with science and a shared understanding that unprecedented conditions require new solutions," Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Camille Calimlim Touton said in a statement.

The draft plan is the result of engagement with the basin states, water commissioners, the 30 native tribes and more.

A final plan on the cuts is expected to be made this summer.

An extremely wet winter was seen across much of the Southwest, in particular California. The wet weather, although it caused huge disruption in some places in the form of floods, was welcome to the drought-stricken region.

But one wet year will not help the damage that the decades-long drought has already done, and experts are warning that drastic measures are still needed.

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