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Eight teams are still in contention for four spots in this season's College Football Playoff heading into conference championship weekend.
The selection committee released its penultimate rankings on Tuesday, which saw Georgia, Michigan, Washington, and Florida State occupy the top four spots. But, aside from those four undefeated squads, four one-loss teams—Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, and Alabama—can still find a way into the playoff field.
Seven of these eight teams will be in action this weekend. Oregon and Washington will face off in a highly anticipated rematch during the Pac-12 Championship Game on Friday night. The other Power Five conference title games will be played on Saturday. And it all leads up to the final unveiling of the rankings at noon ET on Sunday.
A variety of scenarios are still on the table for this year's playoff field. How can Ohio State make its way back into the top four despite not playing this weekend? In what scenario does the SEC get two—or no—teams in? And which contenders control their own destiny this weekend?
Here's a look at the path to the playoff for the top eight teams.
No. 1 Georgia (12-0)
The two-time defending national champions would lock into the College Football Playoff's top seed with a win over Alabama in the SEC Championship Game on Saturday. Which is easier said than done. The Bulldogs are 0-3 against the Crimson Tide in conference title games. Two years ago, an undefeated Georgia team lost to Alabama in this game but still made the playoff. With a loss in this year's game, Kirby Smart's team will likely need Florida State and Texas to lose their respective conference title games to still reach the playoff.
That would leave Michigan, Washington, and Alabama above Georgia. And the No. 4 spot would come down to Georgia and Ohio State, a comparison favorable to the Bulldogs.
No. 2 Michigan (12-0)
Michigan enters the Big Ten Championship Game as a heavy favorite over Iowa. With a win, the Wolverines would remain the No. 2 seed, or perhaps even jump to the top spot if Alabama beats Georgia. If the Hawkeyes pull the upset, the Wolverines may need other games to go in their favor to still get in. That, in a perfect Wolverine world, includes Georgia and Washington remaining undefeated, Florida State suffering their first loss, and Texas falling to 11-2.
In that scenario, Georgia and Washington are in. But Oregon, Florida State, Texas and Alabama are out. And that leaves two open spots for two teams from the Big Ten: Michigan and Ohio State.
No. 3 Washington (12-0)
A second win against Oregon this season, this time for the Pac-12 title, will send Washington to the top four (no lower than No. 3). And with losses by Georgia and Michigan, the Huskies could even claim the No. 1 ranking in the bracket. But with a loss to the Ducks? Things get tricky.
The Huskies would have to hope that Georgia stays undefeated, but Michigan and Florida State suffer their first losses. Iowa beating Michigan would also be a blow to Ohio State, who would fall to third in the Big Ten pecking order. And Washington may need Texas to lose, too, to still get in. That would likely leave, in some order, Georgia, Michigan, and the two Pac-12 teams.
No. 4 Florida State (12-0)
Like the other remaining undefeated teams, Florida State is in with a win this weekend. The selection committee has faced questions about FSU's chances of late, especially since the injury to star quarterback Jordan Travis. But a 13-0 ACC Champion won't be left out (right?). A loss to Louisville, though, would bounce the Seminoles from CFP contention. Any of the other one-loss teams would likely beat out Florida State from a resume perspective, no matter how things fall.
No. 5 Oregon (11-0)
The challenge in front of Oregon is simple.
Avenge a three-point regular-season loss to Washington and soar into the top four. Lose, and go to a non-playoff New Year's Six bowl. The Ducks enter Friday night's title game as a 9.5-point favorite over the Huskies. And with a convincing win, Oregon could even, theoretically, leap Florida State or whoever the fourth team is to the No. 3 slot, perhaps avoiding a semifinal meeting with Georgia.
No. 6 Ohio State (11-0)
To say the Buckeyes need help is an understatement. Ohio State fell from No. 2 to No. 6 in the rankings after losing "The Game" to Michigan. And Ryan Day's squad is the only team in the top eight who won't be playing this weekend. So Ohio State can't help itself. It needs things to fall the right way. What would that mean? Georgia, Michigan, and Washington winning, and Florida State and Texas losing. That would deliver Alabama, Oregon and Texas with their second losses. And a one-loss OSU would likely get the edge over a one-loss FSU.
This isn't unfamiliar territory for Ohio State. The Buckeyes finished last regular season 11-1 after falling to the Wolverines, though still found a spot in the top four.
No. 7 Texas (11-0)
Texas may be the only team among these eight that is playing on Saturday but doesn't necessarily control its own destiny. Aside from Ohio State, the other top eight teams are likely in with a victory on Saturday. But winning the Big 12 title over Oklahoma State may not be enough for the Longhorns.
In reality, they will likely also need Florida State to lose to open a spot in the playoff field. And even though Texas owns a head-to-head win over Alabama this season, the committee may be tempted to jump the Crimson Tide over the Longhorns should Nick Saban's team beat Georgia, even if Texas also wins. So the safest bet for the Longhorns is Georgia winning.
No. 8 Alabama (11-0)
Alabama may find itself on the back side of the top 10 heading into championship weekend. But the path to the top four is rather straightforward. If Alabama beats Georgia, it will probably earn a spot in the playoff. A one-loss Alabama team with that quality of a win would jump the other teams in discussion for a spot (and knock Georgia from No. 1 in the process). If things fall the right way—that is if Washington and Michigan lose—Alabama could even wind up No. 1.
The only thing that would keep the Crimson Tide out with a win is if the selection committee heavily relies on their loss to the Longhorns. If Michigan, Washington, Florida State, Texas, and Alabama all win this weekend, the undefeated teams would be locks. And the final spot would come down to Texas and Alabama. The committee opting to send the Longhorns in because of their head-to-head victory would leave the SEC with no teams in this year's playoff.
About the writer
Robert Read is a Life & Trends Reporter at Newsweek based in Florida. His background is primarily in sports journalism ... Read more