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Questions remain about whether the Colorado Supreme Court's decision to bar Donald Trump from appearing on the state's ballot will help or hinder the Republican's chances in 2024.
On Tuesday, the court banned Trump from next year's Republican primary ballot in the state, ruling his actions around the January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol violated Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. The section states that a person who "engaged in insurrection or rebellion" after taking an oath to support the Constitution should be barred from running for office again.
Trump immediately said he would appeal the historic decision in the U.S. Supreme Court, where a conservative majority bench, including three justices nominated by Trump, could decide whether to overturn the decision and allow the former president on the Colorado ballots.
However, even if the Supreme Court keeps the ban in place, there is an argument that it will not majorly affect Trump's chances in the GOP primary or presidential election.
The former president is the current frontrunner for the 2024 Republican nomination and could conceivably win without the help of voters in Colorado. President Joe Biden beat Trump in Colorado by more than 13 points in 2020, and it, therefore, is not considered one of the critical swing states that Trump would need to flip, like Pennsylvania, Arizona or Michigan.
Experts have suggested if anything, that the Colorado decision could actually help Trump with their bid to re-enter the White House if voters consider the ruling to be proof of biased and partisan attempts to stop him from winning the 2024 election in the courts and federal agencies. Trump has said that the four criminal investigations into him are politically motivated "witch hunts." He has pleaded not guilty to 91 charges across the cases.
Sean Freeder, an assistant professor of political science at the University of North Florida, said it is possible that the Colorado decision could help Trump in 2024, but it all depends on the timing of the Supreme Court ruling.
"If the Supreme Court decides to weigh in at some point in the next few months, given their ideological makeup, it's very likely that they would reverse the decision," Freeder told Newsweek.
"On one hand, SCOTUS reversing a decision to keep Trump off the ballot might look to some independents and Republican-leaners that there was an illegitimate attempt to weaken Trump's campaign and, given that ties in with his false rhetoric about the 2020 election having been stolen, that might lead some of them to support Trump."
"It doesn't matter if this is not really what happened, just as it didn't matter to the public that the Mueller Report did not actually clear Trump of connections to Russian election interference—perception is everything, and if some voters understand this as a political attack on Trump, it'll help him," Freeder added.
Despite facing possible felony convictions across four criminal trials, Trump has remained the clear favorite to win the GOP primary, with many polls also suggesting he is leading the race to win the presidential election.
Other surveys also revealed that support for Trump improved after his criminal indictments.
David B. Cohen, a professor of political science at the University of Akron in Ohio, said the Colorado Supreme Court disqualifying Trump from running for president in the state may not boost the former president's chances to win the Republican 2024 nomination, but "probably won't hurt them either."
"Those that believe the numerous charges filed against Trump are politically motivated and that he is an innocent victim are likely already supporting him and have been for years," Cohen told Newsweek.
"In the general election, however, from a purely electoral perspective, it could definitely hurt him, especially if other states follow Colorado's example and attempt to boot him from the ballot."
Cohen added that if the Supreme Court does rule in his favor, then Trump will have additional "ammunition" on the campaign trail to suggest that he is being unfairly persecuted.
According to a recent YouGov poll, more than half (54 percent) of U.S. adults support the Colorado Supreme Court's decision disqualifying Trump from running for president over his actions around the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.
This figure includes 24 percent of Republican voters who said they either "somewhat" or "strongly" approve of the ruling.
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About the writer
Ewan Palmer is a Newsweek News Reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is reporting on US politics, and Florida ... Read more