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Republicans have much to celebrate. We now have a trifecta in Washington following President Donald Trump's inauguration, with a Republican in the White House and Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress. But this is where the hard work begins—and I'm not just talking about legislating.
Republicans will need to defend our House majority almost immediately, which is no small task given the tight margins. We can't rest on our incredible November wins. At least three House seats will be up for special election in the coming months. Democrats are ready to fight on the offense in these first contests after President Trump's election and inauguration.
How do I know? I experienced this firsthand as the first member elected to the House after President Trump took office in 2017. My race was a mere 81 days after inauguration. House races must be filled by a direct election in the district per the Constitution—there are no appointments to fill open House seats.
In 2017, the so-called "resistance" was developing, and Democrats viewed my race as a rebuke of President Trump's victory and the newly established MAGA movement. Democrats were galvanized.
However, Republican voters were not as motivated. In fact, Kansas Republicans were frustrated by Washington infighting over the new president's agenda. My internal polling showed a dramatic shift after Republicans pulled the American Health Care Act from the floor. For the Kansans I now represent, it was an outright assault on the will of voters who had just elected a Republican trifecta four and a half months prior.
With Republicans feeling deflated and Democrats enthusiastic, turnout played an outsized role. Only about 120,000 voters showed up to the polls on April 11, 2017—28.9 percent turnout—and the race tightened in the final weeks. Less than two years later, against the same opponent, I secured more than 140,000 votes—20,000 more than the entire 2017 turnout. That was despite progressive celebrities Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) pulling into my home state to manufacture opposition to President Trump's agenda and my candidacy.
Results can drive turnout, but struggling to come together to pass President Trump's America First agenda will keep many Republicans at home during the upcoming special elections in Florida-01, Florida-06, and New York-21.
Like in 2017, Democrats want to tear down the newly inaugurated Trump and his agenda, but this time they have another reason to flood the New York and Florida airwaves—the House majority. When all three of these seats are vacated, the balance of power will be 217 Republicans to 215 Democrats.
Republicans must work to hold all three seats and not simply rely on their "safe R" label.
We saw the effect of Democrats targeting the House majority in the 2024 election. Consider this: Flipping the Senate was long considered a guarantee in the last election. Democrats privately acknowledged that the odds of keeping the Senate majority were slim after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) announced his retirement, and many battleground states looked like they were leaning Republican.
Then came the June 27, 2024, presidential debate. A feeble and incoherent President Joe Biden exposed the real possibility that the presidency would tip to Donald Trump. Democratic donors were spooked, and money flowed to the only spot left—competitive House races. Even after Vice President Kamala Harris took over the top of the Democratic ticket, donors were focused on the House.
On Election Day—and in the days after as final ballots were counted—Republicans had flipped eight seats, but Democrats had flipped nine. In a year when President Trump won the popular vote and Republicans flipped four states in the Senate, Democrats tightened the House majority by a single seat thanks to deep pockets and a last-ditch effort to prevent a Republican trifecta.
Once again, Democratic donors and the left-wing media have no place to peddle their influence except in these upcoming special elections. Grassroots organizers and candidates must be ready to defend these three seats with contributions, volunteer efforts, and prayers; current members must show a unified resolve to implement the policies promised that swept us into the majority in the House, Senate, and White House.
Democrats will be motivated to flip the House majority months into the new Congress. Republican lawmakers must motivate voters by unifying behind the president's plan to lower prices, secure our border, reduce taxes, and tighten federal spending. That's what created success at the ballot box in November, and delivering those results will lead to successes in Florida and New York this year.
Ron Estes, one of only a handful of engineers in Congress, worked in the aerospace, energy and manufacturing sectors before representing Kansas' Fourth Congressional District since 2017. He is a fifth-generation Kansan, former state treasurer, and serves on the House Committee on Ways and Means, Budget Committee, and Education and the Workforce Committee.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
