Crimea a 'Massive Threat' Until Liberated, Warns Ukraine Adviser

• The planned Ukrainian counteroffensive could open the roads to Crimea and cut Russian supply routes to the occupied peninsula.
• The need to liberate Crimea is not up for debate in Kyiv, government adviser Andriy Zagorodnyuk told Newsweek.
• Russian forces are building new fortifications along the approaches to the strategic peninsula in anticipation of the next Ukrainian push.

Leaving the occupied Crimean Peninsula in Russian hands is "out of the question," a Ukrainian government adviser told Newsweek, as Kyiv prepares for what could prove to be a pivotal spring counteroffensive.

Andriy Zagorodnyuk—who served as Ukraine's defense minister from 2019 to 2020 and is now an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky's government—told Newsweek that the Crimea question is settled in the minds of Ukrainian leaders, regardless of foreign skepticism.

"Its invincibility is very much overestimated by international observers," Zagorodnyuk said of Crimea, which occupying Russian forces have spent months strengthening ahead of the next Ukrainian push. "They look at how strong it is right now. We are looking at how strong it is going to be when we actually get into Crimea. And these are completely different positions."

Russian troops have been fortifying Crimea, its choke point land connections to the mainland, and the areas of southern Ukraine still occupied by Moscow's forces. It's unclear where the weight of the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive will fall, but a successful attack into the southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts could open the road to Crimea and cut the Russian supply route to the peninsula.

Ukraine and its foreign partners will be hoping that the next push will lay the foundation for the eventual liberation of Crimea, which has been at the heart of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict for more than nine years.

Zagorodnyuk told Newsweek that the Crimea question is not up for debate in Kyiv.

"The biggest issue isn't whether we'll be able to do it or not, it's that we need to do it," he said. "It's not like we are being opportunistic and saying: 'Okay, we have a chance to do something on mainland Ukraine because we have weapons from the West. Let's just like to try Crimea as well.'"

"Crimea is a massive threat, both from a land perspective and from a maritime perspective, because it controls the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov."

"We need to address that otherwise we'll always have problems," Zagorodnyuk said. "We'll have problems with any stabilization of life in the south of the country or with any economic growth there, because the Russians will always be trying to destabilize our lives from those areas."

"It's out of the question. If we want to build up a stable Ukraine with a stable economy and with proper life, we need to neutralize the Crimea threat."

Still, foreign partners have urged caution. The recent purported Pentagon intelligence leaks appear to indicate U.S. skepticism as to how far the Ukrainians can push their next offensive, and General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has said that Kyiv faces a "very difficult" campaign in Crimea.

Russia's nuclear weapons, too, loom above the Crimea question. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his top officials have repeatedly hinted at nuclear escalation in Ukraine, with former president and prime minister Dmitry Medvedev saying in February that "all types of weapons" will be considered for the defense of the region.

Assuming Ukrainian troops succeed in southern Ukraine, the approaches to Crimea still pose major geographical challenges, even discounting the new Russian fortifications in the area.

Crimea is separated from the mainland by the Isthmus of Perekop, which is slightly more than four miles at its widest point. Only two roads run south into Crimea. Both are now lined with new Russian fortifications, while the eastern road can be rendered impassable by destroying one bridge.

The swampy land around the neck of the peninsula could cause problems for heavy armor and other vehicles, potentially slowing a Ukrainian advance and funneling attacking troops into prepared fire corridors.

Ukrainian commanders would be looking to soften up Russian defenses as much as possible before launching any grand operation on the peninsula. Ukraine has launched scores of strikes—some claimed, others not—on Russian military positions and infrastructure targets in Crimea since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022,

Zagorodnyuk said fortress Crimea isn't insurmountable.

"Do I think that taking Crimea is possible? Absolutely," he said. "Crimea is essentially a massive land base, it's an airfield, and it's a base for the Black Sea Fleet. It has three security components: land, air, and navy."

"We can target their air bases," he said, noting the multiple previous successful strikes on Russian aircraft on the peninsula.

"The Black Sea Fleet is limited, because the Turks have closed the Bosphorus Strait; essentially, they cannot bring ships from the other fleets to the Black Sea anymore," Zagorodnyuk said.

Ukraine has already scored multiple surprise victories over the Black Sea Fleet, most notably the sinking of the fleet's Moskva flagship in April 2022. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said this week that Kyiv has more surprises in store for Russian ships in the Black Sea.

Zagorodnyuk said even modest erosion of Russian naval capacity might prompt a retreat. "The Black Sea Fleet currently has about 20 ships with assault capability, the rest are supportive," he said.

"So, we're talking about 20 ships maximum. And if we damage between 10 and 20, the rest of them will escape to mainland Russia ports like Krasnodar. They will not stay there."

"Currently, at least half of those are used for the missile strikes on the mainland Ukraine. So, it is an actual threat, realized on an almost daily basis over the last year. It's not some hypothetical threat."

"It's a very imminent threat because they use the ships all the time, they load Kalibr missiles, then they are sent to the Black Sea, and then they launch it from the Black Sea over Ukrainian land. We need to do something about that, regardless of everything else."

As for Russia's land forces—mauled by a year of unsuccessful war, but reinforced with hundreds of thousands of mobilized reserves—Zagorodnyuk said the key is eroding their will to fight.

"We should remember that the land forces will be used on mainland Ukraine first of all," he said. "Russia is going to lose loads of areas on mainland Ukraine. And the question is, how capable will those land forces be? How motivated and how resolute will those land forces be if they lose all their acquisitions on mainland Ukraine before we even get to Crimea?"

Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry by email to request comment.