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With November's general election just over a month away, recent polling data indicates the vast majority of Pennsylvania voters planning to cast ballots early support Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Of those who intend to vote on Election Day, survey results showed two-thirds back President Donald Trump.
Conducted by The Washington Post and ABC News, a new poll examining voter preferences in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state, found Biden leading Trump by a significant margin among participants who plan to vote early. Its findings suggested 87 percent of likely voters planning to cast ballots ahead of Election Day support Biden, while 13 percent support Trump.
Data reflected more support for Trump among survey respondents who plan to vote on November 3, with 60 percent of that group favoring the incumbent. Close to 40 percent of respondents planning to vote on Election Day said they will support Biden at the polls. The poll collected responses from 567 likely Pennsylvania voters between September 21 and September 26. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.
The survey's findings were released amid ongoing conversation about voting by mail ahead of the election. As states expanded access to mail-in ballots in light of the coronavirus pandemic, Trump opposed the procedure and continued to encourage voters to cast ballots in person. Surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center between late July and early August showed most Biden supporters preferred to vote by mail, while most Trump supporters preferred to vote in person.
Additional data included in the new survey's results, published Tuesday morning, showed Trump trailing behind Biden among likely voters overall in Pennsylvania. More than half of individuals who participated in the survey, 54 percent, said they planned to vote for the former vice president. The poll showed 45 percent of participants planned to cast votes in support of Trump.
Those figures are fairly consistent with election forecast data released by other survey administrators and polling sites, as Biden and Trump vie for majority support in Pennsylvania. The RealClearPolitics polling average placed Biden 5.7 points ahead of Trump among Pennsylvania voters on Tuesday, accounting for various election surveys conducted between September 10 and September 27.
The latest numbers suggest Biden's lead over Trump in the crucial swing state is widening, with RCP's most recent average showing the Democratic nominee's lead up from 4.3 points several days ago.
Trump won Pennsylvania during the 2016 election by a narrow majority against former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Although that was the first year in decades Pennsylvania voted for a Republican presidential candidate, the state's voting forecast is subject to particular attention as Election Day approaches. With 20 electoral votes, Pennsylvania's support is considered critical, and many note it could be a determining factor in the election's outcome.
