Daniel Kelly's Chances of Beating Janet Protasiewicz in Wisconsin Election

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Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on the U.S. economy, housing market, property insurance market, local and national politics. She has previously extensively covered U.S. and European politics. Giulia joined Newsweek in 2022 from CGTN Europe and had previously worked at the European Central Bank. She is a graduate in Broadcast Journalism from Nottingham Trent University and holds a Bachelor's degree in Politics and International Relations from Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Italy. She speaks English, Italian, and a little French and Spanish. You can get in touch with Giulia by emailing: g.carbonaro@newsweek.com.

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On Tuesday, voters in Wisconsin will head to the polls to elect a new member of the state's 7-justice Supreme Court in a nonpartisan election that is arguably the most important of this year in the country. But with just one day to go before the election, it's hard to predict which one of the two candidates—Democrat-backed Janet Protasiewicz and Republican-supported Daniel Kelly—will prevail on Tuesday, due to a lack of public polling.

The victory of either candidate in this technically nonpartisan race would give away the first clues of the direction Wisconsin voters will sway in the 2024 presidential race, according to many experts.

In 2020, the state voted for Joe Biden, while four years prior it had backed Donald Trump. The race also has the potential to open the door to challenging district maps for the U.S. House of Representatives, which currently favor Republicans, and massively influence future court rulings on abortion in the state.

Daniel Kelly and Janet Protasiewicz
Daniel Kelly and Judge Janet Protasiewicz appear onstage during the live taping of "Pod Save America," hosted by WisDems at the Barrymore Theater on March 18, 2023, in Madison, Wisconsin. Protasiewicz and Kelly are both... by Jeff Schear/Getty Images for WisDems

An internal poll from Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce (WMC)—the state chamber of commerce, state manufacturers' association and state safety council—obtained by podcast host Dan O'Donnell in late March showed Protasiewicz ahead of Kelly by just 2 points as the liberal candidate's popularity took a hit after she was accused of being too soft on crime and allegations of racism and abuse were made against her by former family members.

On the crypto betting site Polymarket, Protasiewicz is heavily favored, with $20,000 having been bet on her, while Kelly has only received $2,800 in bets. Those betting on the Democrat-backed candidate, at the moment, are paying 89 cents while betting on Kelly cost only 12 cents. The price reflects the likelihood of the outcome being right out of $1.

"Polymarket's Wisconsin Supreme Court Election markets are forecasting an 86 percent chance that Janet Protasiewicz beats Daniel Kelly. There's also a 54 percent chance the victory is by a margin of greater than 5 percent," Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan told Newsweek in a written statement.

A triumph of the Democratic-backed candidate, which would give the court a 4-3 liberal majority, could lead to a reopening of the debate surrounding the state's current congressional maps, which were decided following a legal battle between Democratic Governor Tony Evers and the GOP-led state legislature following the results of the 2020 census.

If Kelly manages to overturn current expectations and win the race, on the other hand, the Wisconsin Supreme Court will have an effective conservative majority, with three justices having supported Trump's challenge to the presidential election in 2020. The former president's appeal was thrown out by the liberal members of the court joined by conservative Justice Brian Hagedorn.

A tight race in Wisconsin in 2024 could lead to the Supreme Court potentially voting to hear a similar appeal from Trump's legal team this time.

Update 4/5/23, 3 a.m. ET: This article was updated to include a comment from Polymarket.

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About the writer

Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on the U.S. economy, housing market, property insurance market, local and national politics. She has previously extensively covered U.S. and European politics. Giulia joined Newsweek in 2022 from CGTN Europe and had previously worked at the European Central Bank. She is a graduate in Broadcast Journalism from Nottingham Trent University and holds a Bachelor's degree in Politics and International Relations from Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Italy. She speaks English, Italian, and a little French and Spanish. You can get in touch with Giulia by emailing: g.carbonaro@newsweek.com.

Writers Page

Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on the U.S. economy, housing market, property ... Read more