Democrat Cal Cunningham's Odds of Defeating Republican Thom Tillis Grow in N.C. Senate Race Despite Sexting Scandal

A new poll conducted among North Carolina voters said that Republican Senator Thom Tillis is falling further behind in his race for re-election despite a recent scandal that struck his Democratic challenger's campaign.

According to a poll conducted on October 4 and 5 by Public Policy Polling, Cal Cunningham is leading Tillis 48-42, marking a 2-point gain for Cunningham since Public Policy Polling last surveyed likely voters in North Carolina near the end of July. Pollsters said these results came in spite of a sexting scandal involving Cunningham that his campaign acknowledged earlier this month.

"There isn't a ton of room for growth for Tillis among the people who say the news makes them less likely to vote for Cunningham though—he's already winning those people 79-10," the poll said. "It really is just [President Donald] Trump voters already predisposed against Cunningham who care about this episode," the poll continued, adding that 80 percent of likely voters who said they do not support the president said the news of the Democrat's scandal would not impact which Senate candidate they choose to support.

The poll asked all poll participants if they had heard about the scandal, and 58 percent said they had. A majority of those told pollsters that the news would not change their voting decisions, while 37 percent said it made them less likely to vote for Cunningham, according to the poll.

National File first reported on October 1 that Cunningham, who is married with two children, was exchanging text messages of a sexual nature with another woman. Cunningham later released a statement that confirmed the allegations and said he would continue his campaign.

The news came during a particularly hectic few days within the North Carolina Senate race, which also saw Tillis testing positive for COVID-19 on October 2. This race has been consistently competitive throughout the 2020 election cycle and represents one seat that Democrats are hoping to flip in their effort to gain control of the Senate this November.

Cunningham's favorability with all voters polled was at 37 percent, with nearly equal percentages of women and men telling pollsters they viewed him favorably. While 39 percent of those polled said they had an unfavorable view of Cunningham, his numbers in that area were still below those of Tillis, who received a 54 percent unfavorability rating, the poll said.

Cunningham has been in the lead in most polls conducted throughout the summer and early fall, according to state polling data compiled by FiveThirtyEight. Cunningham's lead has ranged from a single point to double digits, with a YouGov poll conducted in late September reporting a 10-point lead for the Democrat and a poll conducted by Siena College Research Institute and The New York Times reporting a 5-point lead for Cunningham in mid-September.

Public Policy Polling's latest survey was conducted among 911 North Carolina voters with a 3.3 percent margin of error, according to the poll.