Democrat-Held Senate Seats Republicans Are Most Likely to Flip in Midterms

Once a near-certainty, Republicans' chances to seize control of the Senate now appear to be fading under a cloud of poor candidate performances, relatively weak fundraising, and shifts in voter attitudes entering the final months of the 2022 campaign season.

Dr. Mehmet Oz, the Republican nominee in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, has seemingly lost his grip on the race following a number of missteps on the campaign trail, with the Cook Political Report recently flipping the forecast for his race from a toss-up to a likely win for Democrat John Fetterman.

Typically competitive states like Georgia and Arizona have failed to shift in either direction—even as history dictates the minority party typically has an advantage in midterm races—while Republicans' safe advantage in states like Utah have shown cracks as incumbents like Senator Mike Lee faces a formidable challenge from independent candidate Evan McMullin—a moderate in the style of Senators Joe Manchin and Mitt Romney—who has been endorsed by Democrats.

Meanwhile, top figures in the Republican Party, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, have begun sounding alarm bells about their chances to break the Senate's 50-50 deadlock in competitive races amid weak turnout from their base and a Democratic Party surging after the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

After weak fundraising quarters and the National Republican Senatorial Committee's decision to slash $10 million in planned advertising spending, groups like the McConnell-aligned Senate Republican Leadership Committee injected several million dollars into the race to stall candidates like Fetterman, according to campaign finance reports.

On Wednesday, Politico reported on a recording of a tape in which Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel urged the party's deep-pocketed donors to increase their investments in battleground races, saying they were losing their ability to keep pace with their better-funded opponents.

Even candidates like Republican J.D. Vance who were early favorites have faced fundraising troubles, requiring infusions of cash from Senate leadership to remain competitive in the final months of the campaign while their Democratic opponents have surged ahead.

Polls in North Carolina, considered a red state, have gradually begun trending toward Democrat Cheri Beasley as margins between Republicans and Democrats in the national generic ballot has begun to close.

And in the potential Republican pickup of New Hampshire, a divisive Republican primary appears to be trending toward Don Bolduc, a right-wing candidate whom polling shows as an underdog to likely Democratic nominee Maggie Hassan in November's general election.

Attention will now likely turn to races like Colorado, where a credible challenge to Democratic Senator Michael Bennett by moderate Republican Joe O'Dea looks to be heating up against lingering concerns about the state of the economy—which remains the top issue for voters, according to recently released polling by the Pew Research Center—and O'Dea's moderate stance on abortion, which has galvanized Democrats to turn out in a number of competitive special elections across the country.

But Republicans have not given up on states like Georgia, which is likely to remain one of the most competitive in the nation for the foreseeable future, as gaffe-prone Herschel Walker remains in a tight battle with Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock in statewide polling.

Democratically controlled seats in Nevada and Arizona—states in which President Joe Biden won by single digits in 2020—remain in play as potential flip opportunities. Though Republican Blake Masters trails incumbent Arizona Senator Mark Kelly by double digits in most polls, Nevada Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto is likely to face a stiff challenge from Republican Adam Laxalt, who trails her by an average of just four points in the polls.

Under Republicans' worst-case scenario, Democrats expand their current Senate control by one vote. However, there's still a long way to go. According to the Cook Political Report, Republicans still have the potential to flip a handful of seats in November if the environment shifts back in their favor.