New York Democrat Flips Seat in Blow to Republicans

Democrats successfully flipped a GOP congressional seat in New York, fighting off the steady gains that Republicans have made in the district and their immigration attacks amid the state's migrant crisis.

Former U.S. Representative Tom Suozzi won back his House seat in New York's 3rd Congressional District on Tuesday, defeating Republican Mazi Pilip. The Associated Press called the race shortly after 10 p.m., with Suozzi receiving 58.7 percent of the vote and Pilip at 41.3 percent. The two were running to fill the vacancy left by expelled Representative George Santos. The race was projected to be a competitive one in a swing district that voted for Joe Biden by 9 points in 2020 but elected Santos in 2022.

In his victory speech shortly after the race was called, Suozzi boasted that he won "despite all the attacks" and "dirty tricks" during the campaign.

"The people of Long Island and Queens are sick and tired of the political bickering," he said. "They've had it. They want us to come together and solve problems. So now we have to carry the message of this campaign to the United States Congress, and across our entire country. It's time to move beyond the petty partisan bickering and the fingerpointing. It's time to focus on how to solve the problems."

In his speech, Suozzi also took a swipe at Republicans.

"Let's send the message to our friends running the Congress these days, stumbling around for Trump to start running the country."

Former President Donald Trump lashed out at Pilip over her loss, referring to her as a "very foolish woman" in a post on his Truth Social platform around 11:20 p.m. on Tuesday. In the social media post, the MAGA leader decried the loss and said the Republican candidate would have won had she treated MAGA with respect.

"Republicans just don't learn, but maybe she was still a Democrat? I have an almost 99% Endorsement Success Rate in Primaries, and a very good number in the General Elections, as well, but just watched this very foolish woman, Mazi Melesa Pilip, running in a race where she didn't endorse me and tried to 'straddle the fence,' when she would have easily WON if she understood anything about MODERN DAY politics in America," Trump said in the Truth Social post. "MAGA, WHICH IS MOST OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, STAYED HOME - AND IT ALWAYS WILL, UNLESS IT IS TREATED WITH THE RESPECT THAT IT DESERVES. I STAYED OUT OF THE RACE, 'I WANT TO BE LOVED!' GIVE US A REAL CANDIDATE IN THE DISTRICT FOR NOVEMBER. SUOZZI, I KNOW HIM WELL, CAN BE EASILY BEATEN!"

But it wasn't just Suozzi and Pilip on the ballot in Tuesday's special election. The influx of migrants in New York also meant residents in the 3rd District, which includes parts of Long Island, were casting a vote on the nation's immigration crisis. Throughout the special election, New York Republicans deployed their national strategy on border security, going after Suozzi for his immigration record and dubbing him "Sanctuary Suozzi."

Suozzi, on the other hand, sought to distance himself from Biden, whose administration has taken heat over the immigration issue. He admitted that the migrant crisis had "landed right in our own backyard" and vowed to secure the southern border. The Democrat even hit Biden on his age, telling Fox's Good Day New York on the eve of the election that the 81-year-old president is "old" and stopping short of committing to voting for his reelection.

Political consultant Jay Townsend told Newsweek that Suozzi's victory on Tuesday was partly to do with his moderate image, as well as his acumen and early voting strategy. He also said that Pilip's lack of political skills likely boosted the Democrat in the race.

While Republicans have made steady gains in the 3rd District since Biden's 2020 victory—such as Santos' 8-point win in 2022—both Biden and Donald Trump remain unpopular there. Independents make up a third of registered voters in the district, while Democrats account for 39 percent and Republicans represent 28 percent.

With a significant number of moderate voters in the district, both candidates shifted on major issues. While Suozzi moved his immigration message to the right, Pilip softened her abortion stance. Ultimately, while the Republicans' offensive strategy on immigration failed to resonate with voters in New York, the Democrats' proven abortion strategy scored a victory.

Jeffrey Kraus, a political science professor at Wagner College, told Newsweek that while Suozzi's win will be "a psychological boost" for the Democrats, "special election outcomes often have no long-term impact." He added that Tuesday's snowstorm in New York could have depressed voter turnout.

Townsend agreed, saying, "It's a low-turnout special election in February during a snowstorm and more a measure of the party organization's ability to turn out their voters than a referendum on any one particular issue."

Queens College Political Scientist Mona Kleinberg told Newsweek that Tuesday's election should be read with caution since special elections, even without a snowstorm, typically have lower voter turnout. But she predicted that Democrats and Republicans would continue to campaign on the race's issues going into November.

"We know that abortion and immigration are winning issues. Voters care about them," she said. "This means that Democrats will likely continue to be on the defensive when it comes to immigration and on the offensive when it comes to abortion. Of course, the reverse is true for Republicans."

Update 2/13/24, 11:45 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information and comment from Suozzi's victory speech.

Update 02/14/24 12:01 a.m. ET: This article was updated with Trump's Truth Social comments.