Democrats' Odds to Win 2022 Midterms Improve—Bookmakers

The Democrats' odds of retaining majority control in both the House of Representatives and the Senate have improved, according to bookmakers.

US Bookies, a betting aggregator, found that the party's odds of winning the 2022 midterms had increased since the end of February. The aggregator said its chances of holding the Senate rose from 13-2 to 3-1, and their odds of controlling the House improved from 11-2 to 9-2.

While the increase is slight, Democrats can be optimistic about the shift in trends as Republicans continue to eye huge gains in November. The aggregator said the Russia-Ukraine conflict and President Joe Biden's State of the Union address were major factors behind the increase.

"Since the start of Joe Biden's presidential term, Democrats' midterm odds have been worsening, but the trend has reversed in the weeks following the Ukraine invasion and Biden's State of the Union," said a spokesperson for US Bookies. "While the Republicans' odds also improved since the end of last month, Democrats' shifts were more noticeable."

Despite the odds improving for the ruling party in the race to control Congress, President Biden has failed to enjoy a similar surge in support. The Democratic incumbent's odds of winning the next race to the White House, let alone the party's nomination, has not changed since February.

US Bookies placed his re-election odds at 5-1, and he remains the 2-1 favorite to be the Democratic nominee.

In comparison, Donald Trump is the favorite to win the 2024 Presidential Election with odds of 11-4. The former president is also the 1-1 favorite to be the Republican nominee.

"The combination of improving midterm odds and unchanged presidential odds should be a good sign for Democrats, as they've been battling negatively trending polls since the start of Biden's term," the US Bookies spokesperson said. "Democrats still have a long way to go to catch up with the GOP, but these recent shifts indicate that the negative momentum has at least stopped for now."

Newsweek contacted a representative for President Biden and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) for comment.

While betting on elections is not legal in any state, US Bookies said its figures were for "illustrative purposes only," and that the data was based on betting markets in U.K., European and other worldwide operators.

While Biden is the current occupant of the Oval Office, a majority of those who responded to a recent survey said they did not believe he would run in 2024. According to the Wall Street Journal poll, 52 percent doubted he would seek a second term as president. In comparison, just 29 percent said they believed he would.

Among those who identified as Democrat supporters, 41 percent said they believe he would run again, 32 percent said they did not think he would, and 26 percent were unsure.

Biden has previously stated he intends to run in 2024, with some reports suggesting he will make a final decision on his candidacy around the midterm elections in November.