Democrats' Chances of Defeating Susan Collins in Maine, According to Polls

Senator Susan Collins, a Maine Republican, is facing significant headwinds as she angles for reelection in the 2026 midterm, according to recent polling—with Democrats eyeing her seat as one of their best pickup opportunities.

Why It Matters

Republicans currently control the Senate with a 53 to 47-seat majority. While Democrats hope to regain control of Congress in the 2026 election, it will be a tall order in the Senate with only a few Republican-held seats viewed as pickup opportunities by most analysts. Meanwhile, Democrats will be defending two Senate seats in states won by President Donald Trump in 2024—Michigan and Georgia.

Although current polling suggests Collins is unpopular with Maine voters, the senator has consistently pulled off victories in her state, despite pushback from Republicans and Democrats alike. Viewed as one of the most moderate Senate Republicans, Collins frequently angers voters in her own party while also frustrating Democrats when she sides with the GOP.

What To Know

Collins told reporters last November that she plans to seek a sixth Senate term.

"It's my plan," Collins told reporters, the Washington Examiner first reported. "I'm focused on the appropriations process, not elections right now, but my intention is to run."

At least two Democrats—Jordan Wood and Natasha Alcala—have already announced their intention to run against Collins. Several other higher profile Democrats, including Governor Janet Mills, are rumored to be considering throwing their hat into the ring.

Wood previously worked as vice president of End Citizens United, a group working to overturn a controversial U.S. Supreme Court decision related to campaign financing. He also worked as former California Democratic Representative Katie Porter's chief of staff.

Alcala was the first Democrat to join the race and hails from Madawaska in Aroostook County, which is the same county Collins is from.

What Polling Shows in Maine

New polling released by the University of New Hampshire (UNH) on Thursday had some bad signals for Collins' reelection bid. The survey results showed that 71 percent of respondents do not believe the GOP senator deserves to be reelected.

Furthermore, the poll showed that majorities of Democrats, independents and Republicans are all against Collins' reelection plans. Among Democrats, 84 percent said she does not deserve to serve another term, with 67 percent of independents and 57 percent of Republicans saying the same.

The poll additionally showed Collins' favorability significantly underwater. Just 12 percent of respondents said they had a favorable view of the Maine Republican, while 58 percent said they had an unfavorable view. Additionally, 27 percent said they were neutral and said they don't know enough to say.

Notably, the survey also polled the favorability of three prominent Democrats who have been floated as potential 2026 contenders. Among these, Mills was viewed the most favorably at 47 percent to 45 percent who viewed her unfavorably.

Democratic Representatives Chellie Pingree and Jared Golden were also polled. Pingree was viewed favorably by 38 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 42 percent. Golden was less popular, viewed favorably by 18 percent compared to 42 percent who viewed him unfavorably. All the Democrats, however, were viewed more favorably than Collins.

The poll was conducted from April 17 to 21 and included 2,850 Maine adults. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

Collins' campaign spokesperson Shawn Roderick dismissed the polling numbers.

"Every single public poll last election showed Susan Collins losing her reelection and every single poll was wrong—including UNH. It is absurd to be polling at this point in the cycle—these notoriously inaccurate online polls are only useful for being online click bait. UNH was wrong last time and they are on their way to being wrong again," Roderick told Newsweek.

Another recent survey by Public Policy Polling—commissioned by the Senate Majority PAC, which has links to Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York—found that only 24 percent of Mainers approve of Collins, compared to 61 percent of voters who disapprove of her.

The poll additionally found that President Donald Trump, who lost in Maine by about 7 points in 2024, is more popular among Maine voters than Collins. Forty-four percent of respondents said they approve of his job performance compared to 52 percent who disapprove.

The poll surveyed 569 Maine voters from March 20 to March 21. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

Maine's Recent Election Results

Former Vice President Kamala Harris beat Trump in Maine last year, 52.4 percent to 45.5 percent. Similarly, former President Joe Biden won the state against Trump in 2020 by about 9 points, or 53.1 percent to 44 percent.

Collins won reelection in 2020 on the same ballot as Biden, beating her Democratic opponent by 8.6 percentage points, or 51 percent to 42.4 percent. In her previous 2014 election, she won by a massive 37-point margin, 68.5 to 31.5 percent.

What People Are Saying

Nick Puglia, regional press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), wrote in a March statement to Newsweek: "Chuck Schumer literally ran out of things to spend money on last time he tried to take down Susan Collins and she still won. In 2026, Mainers will reelect Susan Collins again and no amount of partisan polling or openly begging any Democrat to run against her will change that."

Dan Shea, a professor of government at Colby College in Waterville, told Newsweek last month: "It's a blue state that she can win. But the snag is that group is getting smaller and smaller. Swing voters might not be extinct in Maine, but they are on the endangered species list."

What Happens Next?

It remains to be seen whether Mills, Golden or Pingree seek to challenge Collins for her Senate seat. Collins may also face a heated primary challenge from a fellow Republican, as she has angered many voters within her party due to her criticisms of Trump.

Thus far, Republicans Carmen Calabrese and Daniel Smeriglio have announced campaigns. Independent Phillip Rench is also running.

Update, 4/27/25 at 6:07 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Collins' spokesperson.