Democrats Chances of Flipping House May Have Gotten Better

Embattled GOP Representative George Santos says he won't run for a second term next fall, potentially opening up a House seat that Democrats could take in the 2024 elections.

Santos' announcement follows a report released by the House Ethics Committee on Thursday that said investigators found "substantial" proof that the freshman lawmaker broke federal law. According to the committee's 10-month-long inquiry, evidence shows that Santos used his campaign funds for personal use, engaged in "fraudulent conduct" and filed "false or incomplete reports" to the Federal Election Commission while running for office in 2022.

The New York congressman is also facing a 23-count federal indictment over accusations of campaign fraud and has faced heavy scrutiny since being elected in the 2022 midterms. Earlier this month, he avoided expulsion in a House vote. Without him in the 2024 races, Democrats may have a chance to win a typically left-leaning district and close the narrow gap between Democrats and the GOP in the House.

"The decision by George Santos not to seek reelection following the ethics report is a significant development in the political landscape," political analyst Craig Agaranoff told Newsweek. "While it's too early to predict with certainty the impact this will have on party dynamics, it certainly opens up opportunities for the Democrats."

Reacting to the Ethics Committee's report on X (formerly Twitter), Santos wrote: "It is a disgusting politicized smear that shows the depths of how low our federal government has sunk. Everyone who participated in this grave miscarriage of Justice should all be ashamed of themselves."

He went on: "I will continue on my mission to serve my constituents up until I am allowed. I will however NOT be seeking re-election for a second term in 2024 as my family deserves better than to be under the gun from the press all the time."

Newsweek reached out to Santos' office by email for further comment.

Santos represents New York's 3rd Congressional District, which covers sections of Long Island and Queens. The district has historically been won by Democrats, with President Joe Biden winning it by roughly 10 percentage points in 2020. Eighteen Republicans represent congressional districts that were won by Biden in 2020, according to an Axios analysis. Republicans hold a 221-213 majority over the Democrats in the House.

"This move could energize Democratic efforts in the district, potentially leading to a more competitive race," Agaranoff said. "Whether this will contribute to a broader shift in the House remains to be seen and will likely depend on a range of factors, including the national political climate and local issues specific to the district. As always, voter turnout will be a key determinant in any potential shift in the House makeup."

D. Stephen Voss, professor of political science at the University of Kentucky, was much more skeptical of the Democrats' chances of using Santos' seat to possibly flip the House in 2024.

"When it comes to Democratic jokes aimed at the Republican Party, George Santos has been a reliable punch line," Voss told Newsweek. "It can only help the GOP in the long run once he's shuffled off the political stage."

He went on: "Voters typically do not adjust their partisanship on a district-by-district basis, and they'll reboot their partisan leanings once different candidates appear on the ballot. I would expect the Santos district to vote on a replacement about the same way they would have voted before he arrived there."

On Thursday, Democratic lawmakers praised the Ethics Committee's report on Santos, including Representative Dan Goldman, a fellow New York lawmaker who submitted a complaint to the committee in March along with New York Representative Ritchie Torres.

"While this report provides more evidence of Santos's brazen scheme to deceive the voters of the 3rd district of New York, we have long known the basic framework of his scheme based on Santos's own admissions of his lies and misrepresentations," Goldman said in a statement.

"Now that Republicans no longer have any fictional excuse to protect Santos in order to preserve their narrow majority, I hope they will join Democrats in expelling him from Congress immediately," he said.