Democrats Chances of Winning Toss-Up Senate Races Amid Biden Fallout: Polls

Weekend Reporter

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As favor seems to be falling for President Joe Biden after his poor debate performance last month, down-ballot Democrats in four close U.S. Senate races appear to be leading their Republican opponents in all but one state, according to recent polling before and after the debate.

After Biden's lackluster debate performance against former President Donald Trump on June 27 in Atlanta, panic spread within the Democratic Party. There have been growing calls for the president to drop out of the race and for another prominent Democrat to become the party's nominee. However, Biden, 81, has vowed to stay in the race, telling ABC News' George Stephanopoulos in a recent interview that he would only drop out if "Lord Almighty" tells him to.

Despite the growing criticism that Biden faces, Democratic Senate candidates appear to be pushing ahead in three "toss-up" elections, as rated by the Cook Political Report, and falling behind in one, according to pre- and post-debate polls in the states.

Remington Research Group, a GOP partisan organization, conducted individual surveys of between 570 and 611 likely voters in Michigan, Montana, Nevada and Ohio between June 29 and July 1. The poll, which occurred just days after the debate, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The poll was sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a partisan sponsor of the Republican Party.

Newsweek cannot confirm the specifics of the poll and has reached out to Remington for more detailed information. The poll data from Remington below is cited by The Hill and FiveThirtyEight.

Senator Jacky Rosen, a Nevada Democrat who is running for reelection this year, speaks during a news conference at the U.S. Capitol on June 18 in Washington, D.C. As favor seems to be falling for... Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Michigan

The Remington post-debate poll of 584 likely voters found Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin to be leading former Representative Mike Rogers, a Republican, by 4 percentage points in the state's Senate race. Slotkin garnered 47 percent of the vote compared to Rogers' 43 percent.

Prior to the debate, a previous poll conducted from June 13 to 18 by Emerson College Polling/The Hill found Slotkin leading Rogers, 43 to 39 percent. That poll of 1,000 registered voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Slotkin's favorable polling exceeds Biden's in the state where he is neck-and-neck with Trump at 42.1 percent to Trump's 42.3 percent.

Montana

In Montana, Remington polled 570 likely voters, finding that Republican Tim Sheehy leads Democratic Senator Jon Tester by 5 percentage points.

A survey of 649 registered voters in Montana, conducted by Torchlight Strategies, found Sheehy leading Tester prior to the debate. Conducted between June 22 and 26, the poll, which was sponsored by the GOP-affiliated Common Sense America PAC, put Sheehy at 47 percent and Tester at 41 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

In the presidential election, the state is safely red, with Trump polling nearly 20 percentage points ahead of Biden, according to FiveThirtyEight's national poll aggregator.

Nevada

Democratic Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen is ahead of Republican candidate Sam Brown by 2 percentage points, the Remington poll of 601 likely voters in the state found.

Prior to the debate, an Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll of 1,000 registered voters conducted from June 13 to 18 found Rosen with a larger lead. It showed Rosen up 12 percentage points: 50 percent to Brown's 38 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Rosen's lead contrasts with Biden's notable lag behind Trump in Nevada, where Biden is polling at around 38.7 percent compared to Trump's 43.1 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Ohio

In Ohio, incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is leading Republican candidate Bernie Moreno by 6 percentage points, according to the Remington poll of 611 likely Ohioan voters.

From June 3 to 6, a Marist poll of 1,137 registered voters found half of voters supported Brown, a five percentage point lead on Moreno.

Brown's favorable polling in the state is the opposite of Biden's who is over 9 percentage points behind Trump in the state. As of June 3, Trump is predicted to garner 46.1 percent and Biden 36.8 percent in Ohio, according to FiveThirtyEight.