Democrats Could Help Lee Zeldin Become One of Midterms' Biggest Upsets

In an unexpected twist, the Democratic stronghold of New York has been threatened by GOP Representative Lee Zeldin. In a matter of weeks, he has rapidly narrowed the gap between himself and Governor Kathy Hochul, and an unenthusiastic Democratic voting base could give Zeldin a shot at winning.

With four days until Election Day, FiveThirtyEight shows Zeldin trailing Hochul by 7.2 points, meaning he has more than halved the 18.1-point lead Hochul held for much of the summer. One poll, conducted by conservative Trafalgar Group over the weekend, even found Zeldin with a one-point lead, though most other polls have him trailing by 6 to 12 points.

The momentum of Zeldin's campaign has galvanized national and state Democrats into action, as the likes of Vice President Kamala Harris and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton rush to New York to give Hochul a last-minute boost. It has also drawn praise for the Long Island congressman from leading Republicans, like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who painted New York as the next Florida during a rally with Zeldin on Saturday.

At this point in the election cycle, much of Zeldin's fate will be left up to voter turnout, which recent history in New York shows will benefit Democrats. Despite the unanticipated Republican gains in polls, data from the state Board of Elections shows that the state has only become bluer since the last gubernatorial election in 2018. According to data released Tuesday, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans more than 2-to-1. If every New York Republican voter and every independent in the state cast their ballot for Zeldin, he would still be short should every New York Democrat vote blue.

The overwhelming number of Democrats in New York is a problem for any Republican looking to win a statewide office, but even with that hurdle and Hochul's lead in the polls, experts said it's not impossible that Zeldin could be the first Republican governor elected in New York since George Pataki, who was first elected in 1994, then reelected in 1998 and 2002.

"Democrats cannot take for granted that they're gonna win that race," Mona Kleinberg, an assistant professor at Queens College of the City University of New York, told Newsweek. "It is very close."

Zeldin's success in picking up key constituents who had previously supported former Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo and running on a campaign centered on crime and inflation—two of this year's top voting issues—have been critical to his polling numbers and attacks on Hochul. Kleinberg told Newsweek that those two messages have really resonated across the state and that Democrats should not underestimate how much that has mattered in the race.

Although Hochul's reelection campaign had hoped to rely on emphasizing Zeldin's ties to former President Donald Trump and her record of championing abortion rights, the governor has recently been forced to pivot to her work on gun safety and the economy.

Her initial plan made sense in a state that has been solidly blue. Positioning herself as a staunch pro-choice Democrat, while framing her opponent as a pro-Trump election denier, is in line with many of the beliefs of New York Democrats. Many in the state assume that this type of approach would be especially successful for residents in New York City, a huge voting block in the state, but Kleinberg said Democrats need to move away from relying on the high number of voters in New York City.

"Assuming that New York City is always going to elect a Democrat—history just does not bear that out," she said, pointing to the mayoral wins of Rudy Giuliani (1994 and 1998) and Michael Bloomberg (2002, 2006 and 2010).

Last year, the turnout rate in the New York City election fell to a historic low of 23.3 percent, suggesting that voters in a city that is reliably blue aren't headed to the polls in droves. At the same time, state Republicans have been able to boost excitement among GOP voters. A Marist poll released last month found that 88 percent of Republicans plan to vote in the midterm elections, compared with 85 percent of Democrats.

"There seems to be a lack of enthusiasm on the part of Democratic voters this year, which may depress turnout. Republicans seem more motivated," Jeffrey Kraus, a professor of government and politics at Wagner College in New York City, told Newsweek.

"Whether or not the polls are accurate...it's clear this race is much closer than observers believe," Kraus said. "Could this be 1994 all over again?"

In the 1994 gubernatorial election, Pataki defeated incumbent Democrat Mario Cuomo as turnout proved to be key. Cuomo's campaign believed that with a million votes in New York City, they would win re-election. But even after he earned the votes he thought he needed, he lost. Turnout outside the city was much higher than anticipated and ended up skewing heavily toward Pataki.

This year's political landscape also mirrors the one in 1994: There is a Democratic president with low favorability in a midterm year. Although President Joe Biden's ratings have picked up since the summer, less than 43 percent of Americans approve of the job he's doing, according to FiveThirtyEight's Friday calculations. In 1994, President Bill Clinton's approval ratings were hovering at about 39 percent—the lowest ratings in a midterm year since 1950.

Over the years, the favorability ratings of sitting presidents have become increasingly influential over how voters cast their ballots.

"National politics has really bled into local politics," Kleinberg said. "What we're seeing is not just about Albany, the Democratic legislature there and Governor Hochul. But really what we're seeing here is just a rejection of national politics.

"It's not so much about Hochul and Zeldin per se, but rather it's a referendum on what's happening in Washington."

Considering the possibility that the solid blue state might elect its first Republican governor in two decades, Krauss said: "It wouldn't surprise me."