Democrats' Bold Strategy Could Upend GOP Primaries

Over the first few months of 2024, Democrats will vote in a number of state primaries across the country to have their say on who might be a presidential candidate in the 2024 election.

But while the majority will vote in their own party's primaries, some plan to register as Republicans and vote in GOP primaries instead.

The practice, sometimes known as crossvoting, allows voters to opt for a rival they want a Democrat candidate to face in an election, or back a more palatable Republican in seats Democrats have little chance of winning.

How they do so depends on varying primary rules state by state, ranging from open primaries, where people can vote without registering for a party, to closed primaries, where voters must register to vote.

It is a strategy one expert has warned may cause "partisan antagonism" and another has said could feasibly throw GOP frontrunner Donald Trump off course.

Newsweek contacted the Democratic National Committee and the GOP by email to comment on this story.

Scott Ernest, an independent, lives in Montana where there are open primaries. Speaking to Newsweek, he said that while he will be voting for the Democrats in the general election, he will vote in the Republican primary because "it can be pretty easy to influence things a bit."

"What is probably strange is that no matter who I vote for in the Republican primary, I will be voting for the Democrats in the general election," he said.

"Part of the reason I'm doing it is that I am in a state with relatively few voters, so it can be pretty easy to influence things a bit. It doesn't take many primary votes in Montana to win or lose. So if enough people vote for someone who can't win a general election, it has a lot of impact. And my goal is to help destroy the political careers of white nationalists and other extremists. Any chaos in the Republican Party is good chaos."

Meanwhile Heather Blair, a social worker based in Idaho, said she recently switched her party affiliation from Democrat to Republican, to be able to vote in Idaho's closed primaries and closed presidential caucus.

"Idaho is a very red state and the 'freedom' caucus in Idaho keeps promoting far-right candidates with 'proven conservative track records,'" she told Newsweek.

"They have infiltrated our local politics, and are bullies to those who don't vote party line, or who are not conservatives. For me switching is a sort of activism. As a social worker, I work with some of Idaho's most vulnerable populations.

"I feel like I have an ethical duty to try to stop people like the Freedom caucus by trying to influence the election. With Idaho being as red as it is, it is inevitable that conservatives will be voted in. I just want to help the not so extreme senators and representatives get into office to better serve my clients, and the people of the state of Idaho."

The actions that Ernest and Blair plan to take have in the past made an impact. The pro-Trump former Republican Congressmen Madison Cawthorn lost North Carolina's 11th congressional district by less than 1,500 votes in September 2022 following a campaign by American Muckrackers who encouraged Democrats to vote in the primary. The Associated Press then found 14 percent of the 38,000 Republican early ballots were cast by voters who participated in the Democratic primary.

Meanwhile, organizations have sprung up to strategize voting in this way. The PAC PrimaryPivot encourages voters "to weaken and then defeat Trump" through voting in primaries.

Their website says: "Donald Trump represents a unique and existential threat to U.S. democracy. At PrimaryPivot, we encourage independent and moderate voters to use their power to vote in open and semi-open primaries in order to weaken and then defeat Trump."

However, switching party allegiance is not without its drawbacks. With voters unable to vote in two party primaries, Democrats who vote in Republican primaries will relinquish the opportunity to participate in other 2024 races from local to federal levels.

Meanwhile, as of May, a law in Tennessee compels polling venues to place signs around their buildings telling voters it is a crime to vote "in a party's primary without being a bona fide member or affiliated with that political party, or to declare allegiance to that party without the intent to affiliate with that party."

The move, which is the subject of a legal challenge by the League of Women Voters of Tennessee over concerns it causes confusion and intimidation, came after lawmakers failed to pass a measure making the state a closed primary.

Crossvoting was also banned in Wyoming this year following reports Democrats registered as Republicans in an effort to stop pro-Trump candidate Harriet Hageman's run against Liz Cheney. Hageman won the primary with 66.3 percent of the vote.

Regardless, if enough Democrats vote in the GOP primaries, it could shape their outcomes. Speaking to CBC, Elaine Kamarck, a member of the Democratic National Committee, Brookings Institution fellow, Harvard lecturer and author of a book on presidential primaries said it was "extraordinarily feasible," that Democrats voting in the GOP primaries could lead to his challenger, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley getting a boost in some state caucuses.

"The press has absolutely made Trump the winner[...][But] if Trump gets knocked off that even the slightest bit, it will be interpreted as, 'Oh my God, blood in the water,'" she said.

However, Mark Shanahan, an associate professor of political engagement at the University of Surrey in the U.K. said destabilizing an election is easier said than done.

"Party raiding to destabilize the Trump candidacy is a nice idea for Democrats, but a whole lot harder to pull off in practice," he said.

"It requires a highly organized, coordinated effort, and in many of the States where there's an open primary, the Democrats are simply not well enough organized to ensure that discipline.

"Numbers matter too, and there simply may not be enough Democrat activists per state to really tip the balance where Trump's lead is so huge that he's already over the hill and into the next county.

"And the Democrats should also be careful what they wish for. In the hugely unlikely scenario where they did unseat a Trump run for the GOP nomination, the likely beneficiary at the moment may be Nikki Haley.

"While Joe Biden remains confident he can beat Trump in a head to head, would Haley as his opponent actually expose his frailties and put the White House at even greater risk of a Republican win?"

Amal Ahmed, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Massachusetts, agreed that it would not "make much of a difference in the outcomes."

She added that while she did not think the "strategic voting was unethical, "it is norm-breaking and takes us further down the road of polarization and partisan antagonism."

"And although it can be done legally, it may still fuel claims of vote tampering and inadvertently aid election denial," she continued. "I understand those advancing this strategy think they are protecting democracy, but the dangers posed by it I believe are much greater than any potential benefit.

"Parties can move to closed primaries, and we may see movement toward this if the availability of open primaries is abused."