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A Nov. 3 Politico piece declared "Rural Democrats confront a potential new low." In fact, rural Democrats had their best showing in years. In blue firewall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Democrats cut into Republican margins with rural voters, a trend that powered Democratic wins in state and local races across the country.
In Michigan, Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer flipped rural Bay, Benzie, Clinton, Eaton, and Grand Traverse counties from red to blue as she cruised to victory over Republican Tudor Dixon. Early on, Democrat John Fetterman's Pennsylvania Senate campaign declared they had every intention of closing the gap in rural counties. According to The Daily Yonder, a news site specializing in rural issues, Fetterman did just that, improving on Biden's 2020 rural showing by 2.4 percent as he defeated Republican Mehmet Oz, to be the only candidate to flip a Senate seat in this election.
The rural vote showed up for progressive ballot initiatives, too. Three of the eight most rural states in the country, Vermont, Montana, and Kentucky, voted to protect the right to an abortion. Meanwhile rural voters played a pivotal role in passing a ballot initiative for Medicaid expansion in South Dakota, and to legalize cannabis in Missouri, the 10th and 20th most rural states in the country.
To be clear, Republicans won the rural vote overall, and by solid margins. That will continue to be the case, but we gain more evidence every election that parts of the rural vote are up for grabs, and when Democrats do well with rural voters, they do well statewide. Rural voters played a critical role in the blue wave of 2018, as many rejected Republican attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act. That backlash helped power 17 and 16-point swings from Republican to Democratic support by rural single white women and rural white voters aged 18 to 29, respectively. It's likely we will see similar swings in these midterms when all the votes are counted, and numbers crunched.
These shifts are even more remarkable considering the Democratic Party's long walk away from supporting rural candidates and county parties. If Democrats can cut into Republican margins with rural voters with so few resources, what if the party and the progressive electoral ecosystem, grew its investment on rural party building and a strong ground game?
The working-class organizing group, Down Home North Carolina, provides a case-study of what a good rural ground-game can do. In state House District 73, Down Home knocked on 35,000 doors and had nearly 8,000 conversations with voters in this countrypolitan district. That canvassing operation helped deliver the race to Democrat and registered nurse Diamond Staton-Williams, who won by 475 votes. It was the Staton-Williams win that blocked a Republican supermajority in the North Carolina state legislature, preventing an easy path to enact some of the most hateful legislation in the country. Democrats need more, not less of this kind of organization and investment if they want to experience more winning.
Now, all eyes are on Georgia, as incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker head to a run-off. Winning the Georgia race would give Democrats a Joe Manchin-proof majority, allowing Biden to move past the long and winding negotiations with the West Virginia Senator that have marked the last two years.
Rural voters will have something to say here too. Warnock garnered over 49 percent of the vote in part by winning more than a dozen rural counties. Black rural voters are the most dependable part of the Democratic Coalition, including in the South, home to nearly 100 majority Black counties, most of which are rural or inclusive of rural. Turning those same voters out again in December will be critical to Warnock holding his seat, and they will be essential if Democrats hope to keep Georgia blue in 2024.
If we learned one thing from this election, it is that we should not write people off. Not a party, not any particular type of voter. This election was not a new low for rural Democrats. Instead, it may signal a new beginning. Now, hopefully more Democratic Party leaders and donors will decide it is time to fully contest for the rural vote and improve their odds in 2024 when the fate of Democracy will again hang in the balance.
George Goehl is a longtime community and political organizer. Following the election of Donald Trump, he helped build one of the largest progressive rural organizing efforts in the country. He is the former Director of People's Action and the host of the podcast To See Each Other, which tells the story of rural people fighting for social justice.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
