Democrats Poised to Pull Off Major Upsets in These 7 States

The midterm elections are less than a week away and recent polls suggest Republicans are on track to take control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate.

While Democrats appear to be bracing for disappointment on November 8, some of the party's candidates could be poised to pull off upset victories against their GOP opponents.

Recent polling suggests that there are a series of tight races across the country where Democrats could pull off some unexpected wins over their GOP opponents.

Here are seven states where Democrats could pull off surprise wins.

California

Republican Representative David Valadao is slightly favored to win his race in California's 22nd district against Democratic challenger Rudy Salas, according to analysis from poll tracker FiveThirtyEight but the election appears to be very close.

FiveThirtyEight gives Valadao a 59 percent of victory, compared to 42 percent for Salas. Valadao was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump during his second impeachment trial following the Capitol riot in 2021 and has not received Trump's endorsement.

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia (UVA) Center for Politics rates the race as a toss-up.

Michigan

Michigan's 3rd congressional district was previously represented by Republican Representative Peter Meijer - another one of the 10 House GOP members who voted to impeach Trump.

Meijer failed to win re-nomination as the Republican candidate this year and instead the GOP is running John Gibbs, a pro-Trump conservative who's in a close race with Democrat Hillary Scholten.

That change appears to have put the seat in jeopardy for the GOP. The district has been won by a Republican candidate in every House election since 1992.

FiveThirtyEight rates Scholten as slightly favored to win the race with a 57 percent chance of victory to Gibbs' 43 percent chance.

Montana

Former Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke appears to be facing a close contest in Montana's 1st congressional district against Democrat Monica Tranel, though FiveThirtyEight rates him as clearly favored to win.

Polling in the race has been limited but a Montana State University Billings poll conducted from October 3 to 14 showed Zinke just two points ahead of Tranel with 34 percent to the Democrat's 32 percent, while 12 percent supported Libertarian John Lamb.

Zinke served as interior secretary under former President Trump from 2017 to 2019 and that could affect voters' preferences. Tranel is a consumer rights attorney who once worked for former U.S. Senator Conrad Burns, a Republican.

Nonetheless, FiveThirtyEight's analysis gives Zinke a 95 percent chance of victory. A win for Tranel would represent a significant political upset.

Nebraska

Polling has been mixed in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district where three-term Republican Representative Don Bacon is facing Democrat Tony Vargas. However, a Vargas victory would be an unexpected win for the Democrats.

An Impact Research poll conducted from August 3 to 7 showed Bacon leading Vargas by just one point with 47 percent to the Democrat's 46 percent, while a GBAO poll showed Vargas ahead by one point with 48 percent support to Bacon's 47 percent.

Though Politico rated the race a toss-up on October 3, FiveThirtyEight rates Bacon as having a 92 percent chance of victory, while Vargas has an 8 percent chance of winning.

Ohio

Republican Representative Steve Chabot is potentially vulnerable in Ohio's 1st congressional district as recent polls show his Democratic opponent Greg Landsman with a narrow lead.

Landsman led by three points in two recent polls conducted by Impact Research. The Democrat enjoyed 49 percent support to Chabot's 46 percent in surveys conducted from September 17 to 21 and October 13 to 16, respectively.

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball at the UVA Center for Politics also rates the race in Ohio's 1st district as a toss-up, but FiveThirtyEight gives Chabot an 82 percent chance of victory.

Chabot has represented the district since 2011 and previously represented it from 1995 to 2009.

Oklahoma

Republicans are reportedly concerned about GOP Governor Kevin Stitt as he seeks re-election against Democratic candidate Joy Hofmeister, with some recent polls pointing to a close race.

Private polls earlier this month showed him trailing Hofmeister and appear to have caused alarm in the GOP, according to an ABC News report on Wednesday. No Democrat has been elected governor of Oklahoma since 2002 but Hofmeister is a former Republican who switched parties last year.

An Emerson College poll conducted from October 25 to 28 showed Stitt ahead with 52 percent to Hofmeister's 43 percent, but an Amber Integrated poll from October 13 to 15 showed Hofmeister with a narrow lead of 46 percent to Stitt's 45 percent.

FiveThirtyEight rates Stitt as clearly favored to win with a 94 percent chance of victory but the race will be closely watched.

Texas

Republican Representative Mayra Flores became the first Mexican-born woman elected to serve in Congress when she won a special election in Texas' 34th congressional district in June but she's now running for a full term in an unusual race against Democratic Representative Vicente Gonzalez.

Gonzalez currently represents the state's 15th district but is running in the 34th due to recent redistricting.

Both FiveThirtyEight and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race in Texas' 34th district as a toss-up.

Whoever wins in this race, the redistricting means that one incumbent member of the House will be defeated.