How America's Voting System Radically Changed in Just 8 Years

Earlier this month Pennsylvania's Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro announced the introduction of automatic voter registration in his state, making it the 24th in the union to authorize this measure (along with the District of Columbia) since 2015.

Under these measures, eligible voters are automatically registered to vote when they interact with certain government services, details of which vary from state to state, unless they actively chose to opt out.

The moves have caused Republican fury, with former President Donald Trump labelling the Pennsylvania decision "a disaster for the election of Republicans." However, one prominent political scientist told Newsweek the electoral impact is "imperceptible" compared to other factors.

On September 19, Governor Shapiro tweeted: "From now on in Pennsylvania, if you're an eligible voter getting or renewing your driver's license or ID card at the DMV, you will be automatically registered to vote unless you choose to opt out. Pennsylvania is an automatic voter registration state."

The first states to introduce automatic voter registration, in 2015, were deep blue California and Oregon. They have since been followed by Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Nevada, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and the District of Columbia. Of the 24 states, 16 had a Democratic governor when automatic voter registration was announced, versus eight Republicans and one independent.

All of these bar Alaska will automatically enroll eligible voters when they interact with the Department of Motor Vehicles, unless they choose to opt out, with other agencies also participating in some states. In Alaska registration will take place through the state's Permanent Fund Dividend, which makes payments to permanent residents of the state each year.

Speaking to Newsweek Professor Charles Stewart III, an elections expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said automatic voter registration (AVR) had primarily been pushed by Democrats for two reasons.

He said: "First, they believe that making it easier to register is just a good thing to do, as a matter of policy. Some also believe that this will bring more Democrats into the electorate (and Republicans fear that), and that may be part of the motivation."

However, Stewart III argued the impact on electoral outcomes is likely to be slight, as many of those automatically enrolled don't vote and those that do are split between the Democrats and Republicans.

He commented: "The research suggests that the political effects are pretty negligible, despite what some advocates claims and opponents worry about. First, people who get registered through this channel but would not register in other ways (e.g., by turning in a paper application or going to the online portal to register) are usually what we call 'low propensity voters.' This will end up adding many more registrants to the rolls than it will add future voters.

"Furthermore, the causal effect of AVR will depend on the characteristics of people who (1) have driver's licenses but (2) are not registered. The lessons from other states is that this is a pretty mixed group, but it is surprisingly Republican and conservative in many cases.

The academic concluded: "AVR will add a very small number of people to the rolls who would not get registered otherwise, these 'marginal' registrants will vote at a much lower rate than people already on the rolls, and this group will be balanced between conservatives and liberals. Therefore, the political results will be imperceptible compared to other influences on political outcomes."

Regina Lawrence, Associate Dean of the School of Journalism and Communication in Portland at the University of Oregon, told Newsweek: "Automatic voter registration is an important way to help Americans over a hurdle that many countries never erect for their citizens."

A recent Washington Post/ABC News poll found Joe Biden is trailing Trump by 10 points should they have an electoral rematch at the 2024 presidential election, though the newspaper did say this was an outlier that didn't match other surveys.

However on September 19, Democrats secured a string of election victories in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Florida, including securing the mayoralty of Jacksonville.

Update 9/26/23 10:20 a.m. ET: This story has been updated with additional information.

Update 10/03/23 4:28 a.m. ET: The headline to this story was changed.