Democrats Within Single-Digits of Defeating Iowa's 'Invincible' GOP Senator

Iowa's Democratic Senate candidate Mike Franken is within single-digits of defeating longtime GOP Senator Chuck Grassley—who has held his seat for more than four decades—with less than one month until the midterm elections, a new poll shows.

Democrats aiming to hold onto control of the Senate have not focused substantial attention on Iowa, viewing Grassley, 89, the longest-serving Republican in the Senate who has easily defeated Democratic challengers in the past, as well-positioned to win reelection. However, a Des Moines Register poll published on Saturday found Grassley leading Franken, 64, by only 3 percentage points.

The poll, conducted by Selzer & Co from October 9 to 11, found Grassley winning 46 percent of likely voters. Franken, meanwhile, won 43 percent. The poll surveyed 620 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The poll indicates that Franken could be giving Grassley his toughest reelection bid yet. Despite Iowa being viewed as a competitive state, the GOP senator has easily won each reelection since initially winning by eight points in 1980. In 2016, his most recent race, Grassley won by about 24 percentage points.

"It says to me that Franken is running a competent campaign and has a shot to defeat the seemingly invincible Chuck Grassley—previously perceived to be invincible," J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co, told The Des Moines Register.

C.J. Petersen, communications director for Franken's campaign, said in a statement to Newsweek on Sunday that the poll shows "it is clear" Franken's "strong campaign" can be victorious on November 8.

"Michael Franken's campaign has continued to be underestimated. While the Selzer poll may have come as a surprise to national pundits, it confirms what we hear from Iowans everyday on the ground - that they are ready to retire Chuck Grassley, and Franken is the first Democrat in a long time who is uniquely positioned to do it," Petersen wrote.

The newest survey represents the best independent polling the Franken campaign has seen ahead of the midterm elections.

An Emerson College poll conducted among 959 likely voters from October 2 to 4 found Grassley leading by 11 points—a comfortable margin, yet smaller than his landslide 2016 victory. The poll had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. A Des Moines Register poll from July, conducted among 597 likely voters with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points, found Grassley leading by 8 percentage points.

Meanwhile, Grassley leads Franken by 9.2 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight's aggregate of recent polls.

Franken responded to the new poll with confidence on Twitter on Saturday evening.

"We are going to win this race for the people of Iowa," he tweeted.

Iowa had long been seen as one of the most important swing states in the country, with former Democratic President Barack Obama winning it twice. However, the state has drifted toward Republicans in recent election cycles as many rural voters turn away from Democrats. Former President Donald Trump carried the state twice, winning by more than eight points in 2020.

As a result of the state's recent GOP tilt and Grassley's perceived popularity back home, the Senate race has not been seen as particularly competitive. Democrats have instead focused on flipping Senate seats in states won by President Joe Biden in 2020, such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The new Des Moines Register poll also found Grassley having a record-high job disapproval rating. Only 44 percent of Iowans said they approved of his performance, while 48 percent said they disapproved. This is the first time Grassley has seen more Iowans disapprove of his job performance than approve.

Franken's surge is driven by independent voters, who have shifted toward him since July's poll. Meanwhile, 60 percent of voters said Grassley's age is a concern as they head to the ballot box.

Newsweek reached out to the Grassley campaign for comment.

Updated 10/16/2022 11:03 a.m. ET: This story was updated with comment from the Mike Franken campaign.