The Denver Broncos Trade Deadline Is Shaped by a $124 Million Roadblock

Depending on whom you ask, the Denver Broncos are taking different approaches to the upcoming NFL trade deadline.

ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that the AFC West club is receiving offers but will see how the upcoming weeks play out before deciding whether it's time to sell. Head coach Sean Payton, however, took a slightly different stance on Tuesday.

"We're not looking to do business with any of our players," Payton said, according to an NFL.com write-up. "That doesn't prevent teams from calling at times. We just—you pick the phone up, but that's kind of where it's at."

Since selling essentially amounts to giving up on the current season, it's understandable that Denver isn't publicly showing its collective hand. At the same time, though, the conversation about the upcoming trade deadline overlooks a major challenge: The Broncos are seemingly hamstrung by Russell Wilson's contract.

Let's break it down.

Wilson's Guaranteed $124 Million Looms Large

When the Broncos acquired Wilson, it seemed to be a statement of intent. The top teams in the AFC all have stars under center. Denver could, in theory, fight fire with fire.

That, of course, isn't how things have panned out. Through 20 games in Colorado, Wilson has lost 75 percent of them. He's thrown for 4,734 yards and 27 touchdowns across that span, and the signal-caller has been unable to lift his club anywhere near the divisional crown.

And while that's already a tough pill to swallow, his contractual situation makes things even worse. Wilson inked a five-year extension with the Broncos, pocketing an incredible $124 million in guaranteed money. That sum also makes it extremely tricky to move the quarterback, since teams remain on the hook for that cash.

Let's say that Denver decides it's time to truly turn the page and overhaul the roster. In that case, Wilson and his sizable salary—his cap hit roughly $35 million in 2024 and doesn't fall below $50 million after the 2025 season—could be viewed as more of a hindrance than a help. If he's not performing like a star, paying him is simply taking up resources that could be spent on young talent.

In that case, you'd want to either trade or cut the quarterback, right? Well, that's where things get messy.

At this point, a trade seems hard to imagine: Wilson hasn't performed up to scratch, and you'd have to assume that other NFL teams would be loath to pay the entirety of his salary. And, to make things even trickier, the Broncos would still be stuck, at least partially, holding the bag.

Based on Over the Cap's contract calculator, a pre–June 1 trade would leave the club with $68 million against the 2024 salary cap. A post–June 1 trade would make things more palatable, but Denver would still carry $18.4 million of dead money.

A later trade is also less desirable because most teams would want to have a franchise quarterback in place earlier in the offseason.

And remember, a trade requires another team wanting to take on the contract. It's quite possible that Denver would have to retain some salary or give the other general manager something in return. And those compromises, while potentially necessary, aren't the ideal way to orchestrate a rebuild.

But what about cutting Wilson? That would have previously seemed unthinkable, and it would signal a major shift. But what does it mean financially?

Again, releasing the QB ahead of June 1 would be a major blow, leaving the Broncos with an eye-watering $85 million in dead cap during 2024. The most palatable option would be a post–June 1 cut, as it would saddle Denver with only $35 million of dead cap during the 2024 campaign.

That sum isn't ideal, but it is relatively manageable.

It's worth noting, though, that those moves would help the Broncos' situation from 2025 onward. Barring the highly unlikely post–June 1 trade, Denver is going to be paying its quarterback at least $35 million next season.

Wilson's Contract Means Denver Has to Work Smart

When you combine his poor performances with his sizable contract, it seems unlikely that the Broncos will move on from Wilson in the near future. That reality, however, should still inform the club's spending habits.

As a graph from Over the Cap's founder illuminates on X (formerly Twitter), the AFC West franchise is in the unfortunate position of playing bad football and lacking a large amount of cap space in the upcoming season. That makes improvement—even if we're talking about long-term foundational moves rather than win-now acquisitions—tricky.

And if you assume that Wilson isn't going anywhere, something else has to give.

Consider the two names Schefter mentioned in his report: Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. In 2024, the former receiver carries the Broncos' second-largest cap hit ($17.35 million) after Wilson. Jeudy accounts for a shade under $13 million against the cap.

Even if you can't escape the entire cap hit, any extra breathing room will help.

Would those sorts of moves instantly change the Broncos' situation? Of course not, but clearing some cap space while acquiring assets, presumably in the form of draft picks, is necessary when you're both struggling in the field and staring down a tough financial situation.

So, as the NFL trade deadline approaches, it's easy to focus on the players who could move. In the Broncos' case, though, one massive, (probably) unmovable contract has to inform the upcoming course of action.