Did Putin's Forces Down Prigozhin's Plane? What We Know, What We Don't

Russian President Vladimir Putin's involvement in the purported death of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash on Wednesday has been widely speculated, as investigators and authorities attempt to unearth clues.

Russia's civil aviation authority said that a private jet listing former Kremlin ally Prigozhin as a passenger had crashed north of Moscow, killing all 10 people onboard the aircraft. The passengers included Dmitry Utkin, a former Russian officer with the call sign "Wagner," who is thought to have co-founded the mercenary outfit.

Reports initially came from Russian-related sources and have prompted theories of a potential set-up from the Kremlin.

Putin has since commented on news that Prigozhin had died but did not confirm the death.

"I've known Prigozhin for a very long time, since the early 1990s," Putin said. "He was a man with no easy fate. He made some serious mistakes in his life, but he also achieved the needed results—both for himself and, when I asked him, for the common cause."

Prigozhin, whose critique of Russian military leadership grew louder throughout the 18-month conflict in Ukraine, appears to have joined other Kremlin critics who have been found dead under mysterious circumstances. Throughout Putin's presidency, these have included politicians, security agents and Russian officials.

Former Kremlin adviser Sergei Markov, among others, blamed Ukraine for the crash. Markov claimed via his Telegram channel on Thursday that "Prigozhin was killed by the Ukrainian special services" on the orders of President Volodymyr Zelensky as "a gift for Ukraine's independence day on August 24," a translation reads.

Kyiv has denied responsibility.

If the paramilitary leader and billionaire private military company financier is dead, it would have occurred exactly two months to the day that the Wagner Group conducted a brief coup against the Kremlin that garnered global attention yet led to a diminished military standing for Prigozhin and his men in terms of the Russia-Ukraine war, which reached the 18-month mark Thursday.

The bodies found at the crash site have not yet been identified, the influential Rybar military blogger account said on Thursday. The account is thought to be run by a former Russian Defense Ministry employee. Another Russian outlet claimed Prigozhin's body had been transferred to a morgue and was being examined in Tver.

This isn't the first time that Prigozhin has been reported to have been killed in a plane crash. In 2019, Russian media sources said he may have been killed following an incident in the Democratic Republic of Congo. However, as reported by Politico, the claim was refuted by Russian state news agency RIA Novosti, which said Prigozhin was in Russia at the time, according to a source close to him.

Even with Prigozhin's death yet to be formally announced, Newsweek examined the strength of rumors that his plane was targeted by Putin's forces.

'Bullet holes' in the plane?

Some have claimed that what looks like bullet holes can be seen in photos of the plane taken at the crash site. The pictures, which are understood to be of the plane based on comparable photos, were screengrabbed from gruesome crash site footage shared on Telegram that Newsweek has seen.

However, the bullet holes theory appears to be based on screengrabbed pictures alone. There's no way of knowing either whether the black dots pictured on the side of the plane were there prior to the crash or could have been caused by the impact.

In all, while it may have some face value, the claim doesn't seem to have much else beyond the photo as a means of substantive evidence.

Air defenses shot down the plane?

Wagner-associated Telegram channel Grey Zone said the plane had been hit by anti-air defenses, reporting how nearby residents had heard "two bursts of characteristic air defence fire," adding that the video showed "inversion traces" in the sky.

Russian publication Vertska posted a map via its Telegram channel on Wednesday showing that the site of the crash was 50 kilometers from the "air defense systems of the 42nd anti-aircraft regiment."

"Also nearby is the military airbase 'Khotilovo,'" it continued. "This territory is part of the Western Military District, where, as Nyistka found out, four commanders-in-chief have been replaced since last fall."

Analysis outside of Wagner-connected channels also suggests that it could have been shot down.

Former U.S. Department of Transportation Inspector General Mary Schiavo told CNN that the plane appeared to have lost a wing, damage consistent with an attack, not a malfunction of the plane.

"It was at 28,000 feet in cruise, that's the safest part of the flight, with, look, seemingly missing the wing," Schiavo said. "It simply doesn't happen. Commercial airliners, commercial planes, modern aircraft do not lose a wing. In my decades of working on plane crashes, I've only had one commercial plane that lost a wing and it was 54 years old."

The plane that Prigozhin was listed as a passenger on, an Embraer Legacy 600, was introduced at an air show in 2000.

"And also the rate of descent, you know, a normal rate of descent, is 1,000 to 3,000 feet, per minute, not 8,000. It was clearly falling," Schiavo continued. "And if you look very closely at the video you can see some other, not just the plane, but you can see some flashes, you can see other smoke, you can see debris separating from the plane. So there are so many clues here that this was an explosion on the plane, or a missile strike."

A report by the Financial Times also quoted a "Western official" who said they had been told that the plane was brought down by a missile system, although they didn't confirm if Prigozhin was on the flight.

Igor Sushko, a Ukrainian military blogger, posted on X, formerly Twitter, on Thursday, claiming that a "LEAK" stated shrapnel found at the site was consistent with a Russian air defense system but suggested the Kremlin narrative would be to say a bomb was planted.

Bomb planted on the plane?

Reports from other U.S. officials have dismissed the idea of a surface-to-air attack. Pentagon spokesperson Air Force Brigadier General Pat Ryder said the idea of a missile was "inaccurate," leaving the possibility that a bomb may have been used.

A senior Biden administration official, quoted by The Wall Street Journal, added that they had "no information at this time to suggest that a surface-to-air missile was launched against the private aircraft reportedly carrying Yevgeny Prigozhin."

The Journal also reported from officials that U.S. satellite infrared sensors that detect heat from missiles did not pick up missile fire when the plane went down.

Christopher Steele, the former MI6 officer who produced an unverified report in 2017 claiming that Russia had been cultivating U.S. President Donald Trump for years, told Sky News that "it's an inside job, the suggestion is that it's a bomb in a wine crate." The claim remains unverified.

No official comment confirming cause of crash

A mixture of unnamed reports and claims on Telegram from Wagner-associated groups and others with rival associations in the conflict are not verifiable sources for confirmation about this story.

And the lack of consistency between experts in the field and Western officials is also disorienting. While there appears to be some compelling testimony, based on the altitude of the plane's flight and its descent, which strongly suggests the crash was caused by an intervention of some kind, all of what's been provided still has the weight of rumor to it.

The mystery is symbolized by the lack of full confirmation of Prigozhin's death. Although U.S. officials have said it is "highly likely" he died, the uncertainty is emblematic of all the claims surrounding the circumstances of the crash.

While Russian investigators have opened a probe into what happened, the fact that its authorities have already dismissed the notion of Kremlin involvement suggests conclusions borne of an investigation may not be reliable.