Donald Trump's Odds of Winning in 2024 Handed Boost

Donald Trump's odds of winning the 2024 presidential election have not been hurt by his indictment, but rather the chances of him making it back into the White House have improved, bookmakers have said.

According to Betfair, the former president's chances of winning the Republican nomination have improved since charges were announced against him on Thursday—though Joe Biden remains the bookies' favorite for another term in the White House.

It comes as Trump is expected to go to Manhattan Criminal Court on Tuesday afternoon to surrender himself for arraignment, the first time the charges against him will be heard in full in public. It marks the first time a former president has faced criminal charges in U.S. history.

His indictment follows a vote in favor of charges by a grand jury, which had been hearing testimony in recent weeks concerning allegations of hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney, had been investigating Trump over his alleged involvement in the payments. Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, was allegedly given $130,000 by Cohen to stay quiet about an alleged affair with Trump in 2006. Cohen has previously said he was reimbursed by Trump.

Trump has denied any wrongdoing, and has repeatedly claimed the investigation into him is politically motivated, noting Bragg's affiliation to the Democratic Party. The ex-president, who also denies having an affair with Daniels, has described the case as a "witch-hunt" and a "fake case."

The former president is expected to plead not guilty to the charges, having vociferously denied any allegations against him in public. Though the charges have not been made public, it is believed that they include at least one felony.

While the unprecedented case is likely to have a significant bearing on the 2024 presidential election and Trump's campaign, early signs suggest that it has so far improved his political prospects.

Recent polling shows he has seen a rise in support among Republican voters in the presidential primaries since being charged. His campaign said on Friday that it had raised $4 million in the 24 hours since the indictment was announced.

Now, Betfair's odds on Trump winning the Republican nomination have gone from 5/6 to 4/5, meaning it considers a Trump win more likely.

Meanwhile, the chances of Ron DeSantis receiving the nomination have gone from 2 to 1 to now being 5 to 2, meaning it believes the Florida governor is less likely than before to win. DeSantis has not declared his candidacy, but is widely expected to run.

"Remarkably, Donald Trump hasn't lost any support in the 2024 U.S. election betting markets since news broke of his indictment," Sam Rosbottom, a Betfair spokesperson, said. "In fact, he's even gained some backing and improved his chances of being on the ballot in 2024."

In a potential battle between Trump and DeSantis, "punters continue to side with Trump despite the news and it's had an impact on Ron DeSantis' odds of becoming the candidate in the red corner," Rosbottom added.

However, the bookies still believe that in a head-to-head between Trump and Biden, America is likely to see a repeat of the U.S. president's 2020 success, with odds on Biden winning at 2 to 1 compared to Trump on 3 to 1.

Rosbottom commented that Biden "remains the firm favorite" for the Democratic nomination and "heads the main election market."

Similarly, Ladbrokes, another betting company, is giving odds of 7 to 4 for Biden, making him the most likely winner, followed by Trump on 11 to 4 and DeSantis on 7 to 2. This aligns with the latest poll by Morning Consult, between March 31 and April 2, which puts Trump one point behind Biden on 42 percent and 41 percent of the vote respectively, based on responses from 5,000 registered voters.

Trump has a knack for weathering controversies that might have otherwise ended a political career, and during the 2016 election saw his poll ratings improve after divisive interventions.

When Daniels first made public allegations regarding Trump in 2018, a Harris poll in the immediate aftermath found that support for the then-president fell six percent among women, but rose three points among men. In a YouGov poll conducted in August that year, 55 percent of 1,500 respondents said the allegations were of very little importance to the nation, while the same proportion of Republican voters said they would have still voted the same way.