Is Donald Trump Being Kicked Off 2024 Ballot? What to Know

Despite a runaway lead in the GOP primary, and some early polls putting him ahead of President Joe Biden in crucial swing states, Donald Trump's multiple legal woes have loomed heavily over his route to the White House.

Adding to his pain, campaigners in multiple states have filed challenges to have him thrown off the presidential ballot, on grounds that Trump's actions on the day of the Capitol attack violated the 14th Amendment, which prevents anyone from holding office who "engaged in insurrection or rebellion" against the Constitution.

Colorado District Judge Sarah B. Wallace recently ruled that Trump had engaged in insurrection against the government after the 2020 presidential election.

However, Wallace allowed him to remain on Colorado's primary ballot because it is unclear whether a Civil War-era constitutional amendment barring insurrectionists from public office applies to the presidency.

It has already been appealed to the Colorado Supreme Court. Trump has also appealed to have Wallace's insurrection judgment squashed.

As further judgment awaits, Newsweek has traced back the story so far and spoke to experts about what it could all mean for Trump's presidential ambitions.

What Challenges Have Been Made?

The decision in Colorado is the latest of multiple challenges across the U.S. arguing Trump should be off the ballot on grounds of being part of an insurrection.

The Minnesota Supreme Court has already allowed Trump to remain on the primary ballot, finding that who appears on the ballot is solely decided by political parties.

In a four-page order, the court wrote that the "petitioners have standing and that their claims are ripe as to the issue of whether former President Trump should be excluded from the 2024 Republican presidential nomination primary." However, it was decided that the petitioners were wrong in arguing the secretary of state shouldn't place Trump's name on the ballot for the state's 2024 general election.

Chief Justice Natalie Hudson, who wrote the decision, said there is currently no state law that prohibits a political party from placing a name on the ballot for "a candidate who is ineligible to hold office."

Earlier this month, Michigan Judge James Redford denied a request to keep Trump off the Michigan 2024 presidential primary ballot and said that the request is a "political question" and not a question to be decided by the courts.

"The question of whether Donald J. Trump is qualified or disqualified from appearing on the 2024 general election ballot in Michigan is not ripe for adjudication at this time," the judge ruled.

Longshot Republican presidential hopeful John Anthony Castro has filed multiple other lawsuits across the states arguing that Trump should be barred from running for office again over claims he violated his constitutional oath with his actions around the Capitol riot in January 2021.

Judge Wallace's decision in Colorado has stood out by ruling that Trump did take part in an insurrection, a central part of the legal challenges against him, but determining the Constitution's wording is not clear enough to knock him out of the race in the state.

Colin Provost, an associate professor of public policy at University College London, told Newsweek that Wallace did not have much background to build a ruling on and noted the clear political sensitivity surrounding the case.

"There is not much precedent for U.S. judges to make decisions about insurrection or grounds for disqualification from the ballot," Provost said.

"Consequently, it is difficult to see many judges willing to rule that Trump should be disqualified. Also, judges can't help but be aware of political reality and how a vote to remove would be received."

While Wallace may have had little legal precedent with which to judge the Constitutional challenge, there was plenty of recent evidence and argument to rule on Trump's role on January 6.

Todd Landman, a professor of political science at the University of Nottingham, told Newsweek that the line of evidence, "running from the impeachment hearings to the much more comprehensive January 6 committee work" was consistent and could threaten Trump's wishes to overturn that part of her ruling.

"Her judgment is not out of line with a large and complex evidence base, and itself was based on evidence presented in the Colorado case," Landman said.

"As such, this part of her judgment is seen as a fact outcome, and thus is unlikely to be overturned by the appeal court."

Constitutional lawyer Kent Greenfield previously told Newsweek that it's likely that the appeals court will make a decision in a few weeks and that if it rules against Trump, "there is little doubt that the Trump campaign will petition for review at the Supreme Court."

"If that happens, it is highly likely that the Court will hear the case, and on an expedited schedule," Greenfield said. "This could be the most important political case the Court has heard since Bush v. Gore."

Newsweek has contacted Donald Trump's media representatives via email for comment.

Could Trump Be Knocked Off The Ballot?

As mentioned, Wallace's ruling and the outcome of similar cases, some of which have argued deferring the matter to Congress, combined with the political sensitivity surrounding the matter, will almost certainly be considered by the Colorado Supreme Court.

A successful appeal to have Trump removed from Colorado's ballots would with all likelihood end up in the U.S. Supreme Court, which seats three Trump appointees.

For Landman, the journey to the U.S. Supreme Court appeared to be baked in.

"The Wallace judgment is based on a very close reading of Section 3 that does not specifically mention the President, but if the Court decided to overturn this part of the Wallace judgment and say that Trump is not eligible, then it creates an odd situation of taking him off the ballot in one state," Landman said.

"If the court nevertheless rules in this way, then further appeals will be forthcoming and, to me, the U.S. Supreme Court would need to hear the case given its national consequences."

Colorado could prove crucial to Trump if he makes it to the 2024 race. According to government data analysts USA Facts, five states since 2000—Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia—have matched the eventual election winner in all but one election.

While appellants wait for the Colorado, and perhaps U.S., Supreme Court, experts agreed the insurrection ruling alone has had an impact.

Landman said Wallace's judgment would strengthen "both Jack Smith's overall case with regard to January 6, and it strengthens any new lawsuits that might be brought."

Evan Bernick, an assistant professor at Northern Illinois University's College of Law, added that Judge Wallace's ruling "absolutely" strengthened the ongoing appeals.

"The 'Section-3-doesn't-cover-the-Pres' argument is very technical and 'the more important thing is that he engaged in insurrection' is rhetorically very powerful," Bernick said.

"On balance, I think this is a win for those seeking to disqualify Trump."