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Donald Trump has gained a significant lead in the battle to become Republican voters' preferred 2024 presidential nominee, according to a new poll.
In the Monmouth University survey, 41 percent of Republican-identifying or leaning voters said Trump would be their preferred candidate at the next presidential election, versus 27 percent for Florida Governor Don DeSantis. However, a hypothetical head-to-head contest between the two men would be much closer, with 47 percent of Republicans saying they would vote for Trump, against 46 percent for DeSantis.
The polling comes amidst speculation Trump is about to be arrested for alleged campaign finance violations relating to claims he arranged the payment of hush money to former adult film star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 presidential election. Trump, who strongly denies the claims, initially said he expected to be detained on Tuesday, though his lawyer Joe Tacopina has since told Newsweek they're not expecting an indictment until next week.
Monmouth University polled 521 registered voters who "identify with or lean toward the Republican Party" between March 16 and 20. The survey found that Trump and DeSantis are by some margin the most popular first-choice presidential candidates for Republican voters, with third-placed Nikki Haley being the preferred candidate of just 3 percent.
The survey showed a significant movement towards Trump amongst Republican voters over the past few months, compared to similar Monmouth University polls conducted in February and December. The former president went from being the first-choice presidential candidate of just 26 percent in December, to 41 percent in March.
In contrast, DeSantis suffered a significant fall in popularity, with 39 percent of Republicans identifying him as their preferred candidate in December, against 27 percent this month.
Trump has also improved significantly in a direct matchup against DeSantis, turning a 13-point deficit in February into a 1-point lead this month. In a matchup against either Haley or Mike Pence, Trump is the overwhelming favorite, leading by 70 percent to 23 percent, and 73 percent to 21 percent, respectively.
Unsurprisingly, Trump is the strong favorite of Republicans who consider themselves part of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, being the preferred presidential candidate of 73 percent of this group, versus 25 percent for DeSantis. However, the Florida governor leads Trump with Republicans who don't consider themselves to be MAGA supporters at all, by 57 percent to 31 percent.
Newsweek reached out to Donald Trump for comment via his official website and Ron DeSantis via email.
Trump is also facing investigations into his involvement in efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election result in Georgia, the events surrounding the riot at the U.S. Capitol by his supporters on January 6, 2021, and whether he mishandled classified documents found at his Mar-a-Lago home last year.
Legal analyst Glenn Kirschner, a former federal prosecutor, said on Tuesday that Trump is in "deep trouble" during an episode of his Truth Matters podcast.
About the writer
James Bickerton is a Newsweek U.S. News reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is on covering news and politics ... Read more