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Former President Donald Trump would beat California Governor Gavin Newsom in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, according to a new projection of the presidential election.
Newsom has been floated as a possible alternative to President Joe Biden in the case he decides to drop out of the 2024 election, though the governor has downplayed speculation he could launch a primary challenge against him. Biden is facing concerns about his age, as well as new questions about his ability to connect with crucial voter groups, such as young voters, in crucial swing states that will determine the outcome of the 2024 election.
Trump, despite ongoing legal challenges, maintains a slight lead in the most critical battleground states ahead of 2024, several polls have now shown, sparking questions about whether Biden is the Democrats' best candidate. But a 2024 projection by Stack Data Strategy similarly found other Democratic contenders, including Newsom, may also face electability concerns in a matchup against the former president.
The projection found Trump leading Biden in the Electoral College, even if Biden is favored to win the popular vote, flipping back states including Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in a head-to-head. In this scenario, Trump would win by a 292-246 margin.
Newsom, however, is poised to fare even worse than Biden, according to Stack Data Strategy's projection.
In addition to losing the same swing states as Biden, the projection also showed Newsom losing Maine, Michigan, Nevada and New Hampshire, all states also won by Biden in 2020, against Trump.
Newsweek reached out to Newsom's political team and Trump's campaign for comment via email.
The projection is a blow to Newsom's speculated presidential aspirations. Although Newsom has not announced any plans to run for president, he has worked to build his national name recognition through a series of events, including his plans to debate Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican challenging Trump in the party's presidential primary.
Still, Newsom is not expected to run in 2024, unless Biden drops out of the race. Th president currently faces primary challenges from author Marianne Williamson and Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota, however both are viewed as long-shot candidates.
The projection also found Vice President Kamala Harris performing better than Newsom, holding onto Maine and Nevada, but still losing to Trump in the Electoral College and popular vote.
Stack Data Strategy's projection used Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) and was based off of 15,205 interviews with U.S. registered voters between October 13 and November 3.
Biden Gets One Good Sign From New 2024 Projection
While the projection found Trump leading Democratic candidates, it did deliver one good sign for Biden.
In a head-to-head against DeSantis, who currently polls second in most GOP primary polls, the president may be poised to expand his popular vote margin and flip two traditionally Republican-leaning states.
The projection found Biden winning North Carolina and Texas against DeSantis, equating to a 359-179 Electoral College victory. Trump, however, continues to hold a substantial lead over DeSantis in the primary, winning recent surveys with support averaging 56.6 percent compared to DeSantis' 14.1 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight's aggregate of recent polls.
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About the writer
Andrew Stanton is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in Maine. His role is reporting on U.S. politics and social issues. ... Read more