Donald Trump Has Less Than 1 in 10 Chance of Winning With Bookmakers As Re-Election Hopes Fade

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Donald Trump has less than a one in 10 chance of winning the presidential election, according to a leading U.K. bookmaker.

A victory for the president is priced at 9-1, implying a 9 percent chance of re-election, Betfair said. Joe Biden has odds of 1-10, implying a 91 chance of taking the White House.

In four of the five crucial states yet to declare a winner, Betfair is offering lengthening odds for a Trump victory.

While bookmakers' prices do not always correlate with the political reality on the ground, such short odds for the Democratic challenger suggest many believe the momentum is now with Biden.

In Arizona, the Republican candidate was priced at 11-4 (27 percent), while the Democrats were on 4-11 (73 percent). Those odds had slipped from 2-1 (33 percent) for the president a day earlier, versus 1-2 (66 percent) for the former vice president.

At the time of writing (6 a.m. ET) Biden was ahead in the state by around 47,000 votes, a tally by Reuters, which uses NEP/Edison Research data, showed. However, Trump has been narrowing Biden's lead with 90 percent of expected votes counted.

In Georgia, Biden had inched into the lead by Friday morning, with just 1 percent of ballots outstanding. There, Betfair priced Trump at 9-1, implying a 10 percent chance of winning the traditionally red state—compared with 6-4 (40 percent) on Thursday.

Biden was given odds of 1-9 (90 percent), shorter than the 4-6 (60 percent) he was offered 24 hours earlier.

trump supporter Arizona
A supporter of President Donald Trump arrives to protest the election results at the Maricopa County Elections Department office on November 5, 2020 in Phoenix, Arizona. Ballots continue to be counted in many critical battleground... Courtney Pedroza/Getty Images

Pennsylvania and Nevada looked even more promising for Biden, according to Betfair's calculations, with the Democrat challenger priced at 1-14 (93 percent) and 1-20 (95 percent) respectively—an improvement of around 10 percent on Thursday.

Trump's odds lengthened to 14-1 (7 percent) in the Keystone State, which is seen as a must-win for the president. According to Reuters, as of 9 a.m. ET, Trump was ahead there by 18,000 votes—a tally that has narrowed considerably in recent hours—and with 5 percent of votes still to be counted.

In Nevada, another critical battleground, Trump was priced at 18-1 (5 percent), slipping from 9-2 (18 percent) the previous day. Biden leads the state by 11,000 votes, with 89 percent of expected votes counted.

Only in North Carolina did the president's odds shorten over the period, from 1-6 (84 percent) to 1-10 (91 percent). There, Trump's lead looked more comfortable, with 77,000 ballots in his favor and 95 percent of the votes counted.

Biden was priced at 10-1 (9 percent), compared with 6-1 (16 percent) on Thursday morning.

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