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Former President Donald Trump's attacks against Joe O'Dea, the Republican nominee in Colorado's Senate race, may actually boost his odds of defeating Democratic Senator Michael Bennet in the midterm elections.
O'Dea has sought to distance himself from Trump and has run a moderate campaign focused on economic concerns, rather than contentious social issues, aimed at expanding the GOP's coalition in the state. Trump remains deeply unpopular in Colorado, which has given Democrats large victories in recent elections despite once being viewed as a swing state.
O'Dea invoked Trump's ire during an appearance on CNN's State of the Union on Sunday after he pledged he would campaign against Trump if he chooses to again run for president during the 2024 election primary.
"I don't think Donald Trump should run again. I'm going to actively—I'm going to actively campaign against Donald Trump," he said.
Trump hit back against O'Dea in a Truth Social post Monday, blasting him as a "RINO," referring to the phrase "Republican in name only." He also suggested that some of his supporters may withhold their vote from O'Dea over his remarks.
"There's this RINO character in the Great State of Colorado, Joe O'Dea, that is running against the incumbent Democrat for the United States Senate, who is having a good old time saying that he wants to 'distance' himself from President Trump, and other slightly nasty things," Trump wrote.
He continued: "He should look at the Economy, Inflation, Energy Independence, defeating ISIS, the Strongest EVER Border, Great Trade Deals, & much more, before he speaks. MAGA doesn't Vote for stupid people with big mouths. Good luck Joe!"
Colorado's race is seen as a sleeper, with Republicans hoping O'Dea could propel them to a surprise victory. He is viewed as one of the party's top recruits of the midterms, as candidates in more competitive states have dealt with scandals and low poll numbers.
Kyle Saunders, a professor of political science at Colorado State University, said Trump's attack is unlikely to have a major impact on the election but could bolster O'Dea's independent image among swing voters. He noted that polls have consistently shown O'Dea trailing Bennet, and that remains unlikely to be affected by Trump's attack.
"It helps Joe O'Dea portray himself as a moderate. Getting called a RINO by Donald Trump probably helps you with more moderate voters," Saunders told Newsweek. "But it doesn't help you with Trump voters."
Still, any gains among swing voters would likely be offset by pro-Trump Republicans not voting in the Senate race or staying home, he said.
"While Trump has not performed well in Colorado, there is still a portion of the Republican base that is very supportive of Trump," Saunders said.
If enough Republicans stay home from the polls, it could boost Democratic odds of holding Colorado's 8th Congressional District, which is evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. Saunders said it's the only race in Colorado that could see downballot effects from reduced GOP turnout, but it's "hard to say that's determined."
O'Dea, in a statement to Newsweek, responded to Trump's attack. He said the election should be focused on issues including inflation, border security, crime and energy, rather than a "rehash of 2020."
"I'm a construction guy, not a politician. President Trump is entitled to his opinion, but I'm my own man, and I'll call it like I see it. Another Biden-Trump election will tear this country apart," he said.
Kevin Wagner, the chair of Florida Atlantic University's Department of Political Science, added that Trump has proven that his endorsement—or attacks—can impact the outcome of a race.
"The effect on the race is really kind of dependent on how strong the Trump base is in that area," he said.
What Polls Say About Joe O'Dea's Chances of Winning
Even as O'Dea seeks to distance himself from Trump, polls suggest he continues to trail Bennet in Colorado's Senate race. A Marist College poll conducted from October 3 to 6 found O'Dea trailing by 7 points. The poll was conducted among 1,127 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points. Bennet leads O'Dea by 7.9 points, according to FiveThirtyEight's aggregate of recent polls.
Still, O'Dea appears to be running a closer race than Trump did in the 2020 presidential election—which saw President Joe Biden defeat the incumbent in a landslide 13.5-point victory.
About the writer
Andrew Stanton is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in Maine. His role is reporting on U.S. politics and social issues. ... Read more