Donald Trump Gets New Threat Out of Arizona and Georgia

Donald Trump's presidential campaign faces a new threat in Arizona and Georgia from independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kennedy will appear on the presidential ballot in Arizona and Georgia, two crucial swing states, in November, American Values, a group supporting his presidential campaign, announced Tuesday. Recent polls in these two states indicate why this may be troubling news for Trump, the clear front-runner in the Republican presidential primary.

Emerson College polls in Arizona and Georgia suggest Kennedy may be siphoning off slightly more votes from Trump than Biden, who has faced troubling poll numbers in swing states as he seeks reelection.

In Arizona, 35.9 percent of Kennedy's prospective voters said they would back Trump in a two-way race, while only 28 percent said they planned to back Biden. Most of his supporters—36.1 percent—said they were undecided when their only options were Biden and Trump, according to the Emerson College poll.

This poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from February 16 to 19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

A recent Georgia poll offered similar news for the two campaigns. The survey found 39.2 percent of likely Kennedy voters backing Trump in a head-to-head run against Biden, while 33.6 percent said they would vote for Biden against Trump. About 27 percent said they were undecided between Biden and Trump.

That poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from February 14 to 16 and also had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.

Newsweek reached out to the Biden, Kennedy and Trump campaigns for comment via email.

Robert Y. Shapiro, a professor of political science at Columbia University, told Newsweek that Kennedy will be a key factor in these states because only "a few thousand votes can make a big difference" in closely divided states.

He pointed to Kennedy's policy positions on vaccinations, COVID-19, immigration, crime and the Russia-Ukraine war, which have bolstered his appeal among Trump voters, noting that he does not have the same "baggage" as the former president.

To mitigate any losses, Trump should get out the message that a vote for Kennedy would only help Biden, Shapiro said.

"This normally seems to happen anyway regarding third-party candidates, but they can still take a small number of votes that can make a difference in key states, as we saw in the 2000 and 2016 elections affecting the Democratic candidates," he said.

Both polls found Trump with a lead over Biden, with or without independent and third-party candidates on the ballot.

In an Arizona head-to-head matchup, Trump had support from about 46 percent of respondents, while about 43 percent said they would back Biden. With third-party candidates introduced, about 42 percent said they'd back Trump, 37 percent were for Biden and 8 percent were for Kennedy. The rest remained undecided or backed other candidates.

In Georgia, 48 percent of respondents said they would support Trump, while 42 percent backed Biden. When other candidates were included, 45 percent said they'd back Trump, 36 percent were for Biden and 6 percent were for Kennedy. The rest remained undecided or said they planned to vote for other candidates.

Biden, who has seen troubling polling news, won both states in 2020. Notably, more than 10 percent in each poll said they were not sure who they would vote for.

While Kennedy's appearance on the ballot may slightly benefit Biden, the president would face difficult circumstances if other third-party or independent candidates earned ballot access in crucial swing states.

Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidate Cornel West, both of whom are trying to appeal to more progressive voters who have broken from Biden on key policy issues such as health care, climate change and foreign policy, have chipped away at Biden's numbers, more so than Trump's.

Stein, notably, has earned ballot access in many key swing states, including Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin. West has so far earned ballot access in just Oregon, viewed as a safely Democratic state that Republicans are not expected to seriously contest.